I’m not sure if I’m crying because I’m happy or because I’m sad. As I write this, real tears are running down my face. Where did the time go? We are down to the final two matches. Plenty would call Argentina vs. France a storybook final. Even the third-place match is compelling. Morocco made it further than any African team has before, and Croatia, despite the talks of them being too old or lacking a major scoring prowess, were one game away from a consecutive World Cup final. I lean over in the third-place match. However, I am not fond of betting third places matches so I will focus my attention on the final.
World Cup Final: Argentina vs. France (Sunday, 10 a.m. ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Argentina (+180) | Draw (+200) | France (+170)
To Advance: Argentina (-110) | France (-110)
It’s crazy how different each team is from their 2018 World Cup teams. It’s probably crazier that France are down two key pieces in the midfield, a few defenders, and their Ballon d’Or winning center forward Karim Benzema and still made it to the finals to defend their 2018 World Cup title. They have so many players playing at a high level. I mean, Antoine Griezmann is playing absolutely insane. His passing has been next level. Olivier Giroud has been a great replacement for Benzema and Theo Hernandez has been a beast replacing his brother Lucas Hernandez who picked up a knee injury in the opening match of the tournament.
Argentina have basically jumped into Messi’s backpack and rode him the entire way to the finals. I’m not trying to take anything away from how great all the Argentinian players have been, but Messi has been special. He’s been a joy to watch. He’s been a goal threat and a facilitator. The Golden Ball is all but his. He’s even tied for the Golden Boot. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has also been great. This team just feels like a team of destiny.
If I were to pick a winner, I’d lean France. Kylian Mbappé is another player on France who has been out of this world. It’s probably between him and Messi for the Golden Boot. France are dangerous because they can invite pressure and hurt the opposition on the break with Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Giroud. However, I’m not trying to determine which team will be the best on Sunday. I am interested in backing goals.
Over 2.0 goals (-125) at worse should push in this game. France have scored two goals in every match but the one where they rotated against Tunisia. Griezmann, Giroud and Mbappe have been dangerous. They also haven’t been the defensive force that Didier Deschamps expects out of his team. They conceded in every match but one. Even in the one they kept a clean sheet, it took quite a few moments of individual brilliance to keep Morocco out of the net. They have just two clean sheets in their last 12 matches. It’s hard to imagine France keep Argentina out. Both Julián Álvarez and Messi have been great. France have scored in every match they have played this World Cup. This is a comfortable spot for me with the push protection.
Bet: Over 2.0 Goals (-125)
