Oh how close we came to a perfect pair of total picks Friday.
The first, Austria vs. Israel, both teams to score, cashed with ease. Both teams scored multiple times and the game finished on six total goals after a seven spot in their most recent meeting.
Then there was the Italy team total. A first-half goal guaranteed we would either win or lose on the hook, but unfortunately it was the latter after Jorginho skied a penalty in the 90th minute.
However, I’m back with another pair for the weekend action in Europe. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Portugal/Serbia Both Teams to Score (-105)
If the price on Austria/Israel was confusing, this one is downright mind-boggling.
First, some other observations. Both teams are favored to notch at least one tally in Portugal - the hosts are -910 while the visitors are -150 - and over 2.5 goals is also favored in the match at -125. So unless you’re expecting a 3-0 Portugal victory to make two of those prices come to fruition, this BTTS price should be WAY higher.
But given the onus (appears) to be on Serbia here, let’s focus on the fact their recent history suggests they’re likely to score. Through their first seven WCQ fixtures, no side has yet to hold the Serbians off the scoreboard. Included in those matches is a previous 2-2 home draw with Portugal that saw Serbia win the expected goal battle.
Plus, in terms of their expected goal output in World Cup qualifying, it’s not as if the Serbians have come up exceedingly lucky. Through those same seven matches, the Serbians have scored 16 goals on 14.75 expected goals.
That would seemingly put the onus back on Portugal, who played to a 0-0 draw in their last match against the Republic of Ireland. However, that was the first time this qualifying round that any side held Portugal off the scoreboard. Furthermore, I trust that when back at home, the Portuguese will be far more likely to score.
Through three home matches, Portugal have somehow underperformed their goal metrics. Against Luxembourg, the Republic of Ireland and Azerbaijan, Portugal have produced eight goals on 9.76 expected.
For those reasons, I’d have this price closer to -140, so I’m happy to take this price at -105, especially given these sides combined for 3.21 expected goals - with neither side producing fewer than 1.4 xG - in their last meeting.
Best Bet #2 - Malta/Slovakia Over 2.5 Goals (+116)
The potentially problematic aspect with this play is that neither side have anything to play for, which could produce a very uneventful match.
However, there are metrics that point to this market being worth a look. First is that Slovakia enter this match as a very fortunate road defensive side. Through four matches, Slovakia have conceded only four times. But that comes on seven goals against, per footystats.org.
Meanwhile, despite Malta’s poor overall record, they’ve demonstrated an ability to get on the scoreboard at home. Through their first four home fixtures, only Slovenia have managed to keep them off the scoresheet.
Plus, in their most recent meeting with Slovakia, Malta managed to put two goals on the board, despite accumulating only 1.13 expected goals.
So, that tells me you don’t need to rely wholly on Slovakia to participate in this over. Even if they come through as -230 favorites and win this match, Slovakia to Win to Nil is only a 50/50 proposition at +100.
That said, if the Malta offense doesn’t show up for you, there is an argument to be made Slovakia could beat this total on their own.
In their five remaining fixtures against teams in the top half of their qualifying group, Malta have conceded three or more goals in three of five while conceding at least two in all five. That includes their most recent fixture vs. Croatia, where they conceded seven goals, albeit on 2.5 xGA.
So while the outcome bettors should hope for is a 2- or 3-1 Slovakia victory, the visitors could very well blow out Malta and cash this play all the same.
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