How could one possibly forget the last time Pep Guardiola and Mauricio Pochettino met in a Champions League knockout round?
You know...the one where Guardiola’s City appeared to have defeated Pochettino’s Tottenham on the last kick of the game only for VAR to rip it away?
Pochettino will look to reignite some of that magic on Wednesday after trading up for the Rolls-Royce of French football that is Paris Saint-Germain.
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For the first leg at the Parc des Princes in the French capital, PointsBet Sportsbook has Premier League leaders City the favorite at +110 on the three-way moneyline. PSG come in at +220 on the moneyline with a draw the biggest underdog at +270.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester City Preview - Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET
Parisians collectively gasped Saturday when Kylian Mbappe departed a game with a thigh injury as City loomed.
However, the French national will be available to start according to Pochettino’s Tuesday press conference. In that same press conference, the PSG manager confirmed left-back Juan Bernat is the only player wholly unavailable for the first leg of the tie.
Manchester City enter the match with a fully fit squad. Coming off a Carabao Cup final win on Sunday, expect Guardiola to make some changes to the team on Wednesday. First-choice goalkeeper Ederson will return to the squad in place of American Zach Steffen while Bernardo Silva could come back into the Starting XI to make his eighth straight UCL start.
In addition to arriving healthier, City also arrive in better form. The Cityzens have won 12 straight road fixtures in both the Premier League and Champions League and have yet to record an outright loss away from the Etihad in the Champions League this season. Across the last two Champions League campaigns, City is 7-2-0 away from home.
For PSG, even though they have won 11 of the last 15 in Ligue 1, they come into the first leg with a less-than-stellar home record in the Champions League. PSG have posted a straight-up victory at the Parc des Princes on only two occasions, with one of them coming against Group H stragglers Istanbul Basaksehir.
In home knockout leg ties, PSG have drawn 1-1 with Barcelona and lost 1-0 to 2020 Champions League victors Bayern Munich.
One previous meeting of note between these two teams came in the 2016 knockout round, with City advancing 3-2 on aggregate.
Match Analysis
I’ll start with this - I’m genuinely alarmed at how many bets on the PointsBet odds board stand out to me for this tie. And that’s coming from a guy who was ready to stand far away from this match should Mbappe have become unavailable.
So the first place I’ll start is with Mbappe anytime goalscorer (+155). I’m genuinely perplexed how you’re getting plus-money with the second leading scorer in the Champions League this season, but I’m not about to complain. There’s historical precedent in this bet, too - just go watch the highlights from City’s 2017 tie with Monaco where Mbappe pulverized the City defense in both legs.
I’m also taking a look at both Over 2.5 goals (-140) and will sprinkle a small piece of the bankroll on Over 3.5 goals (+180). PSG’s defense-comes-last approach has surprisingly led to some low-scoring affairs at home and while City are 3-2 to under 2.5 goals in UCL road fixtures this season, Guardiola all but stated there will be chances aplenty in this leg.
“We will concede counter attacks, it’s impossible [not to],” Guardiola said in his Tuesday press conference. “[PSG] are used to playing teams who defend 90 minutes and they find a way.”
As for strategy on those totals, I’ll be putting a full unit on over 2.5 goals with a half-unit going to over 3.5 goals.
Two final plays to provide here are the PSG goal-line (+1) at -139 and both teams to score (-175). For the former, even though PSG aren’t superb at home they have yet to lose a home UCL game by 2+ goals this season.
For the latter, I’m shaking my head at the fact this price isn’t north of -200. Cashing the ticket (for me) ultimately comes down to whether PSG can score, and the reverse leg against Bayern was the first time PSG failed to score in the Champions League this season.
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