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...Ils sont les meilleurs
Sie sind die Besten
These are the champions
Die Meister
Die Besten
Les grandes équipes
The champions
On Saturday, we will hear one of soccer’s most iconic anthems for the last time this season as two of Europe’s most successful clubs, Liverpool and Real Madrid, battle it out to be crowned UEFA Champions League (UCL) winners.
The pair have already tasted glory this season, with Liverpool completing an English domestic cup double and Los Blancos crowned LaLiga champions. Recently there’s been bad blood between the two after Real won the 2018 UCL final 3-1 in controversial circumstances.
Sergio Ramos infamously dragged down Mohamed Salah on 30 minutes, forcing him out of the game with a dislocated shoulder. He gave Loris Karius a concussion early in the second half with an elbow to the head. Moments later, the Liverpool goalkeeper gave away possession for Karim Benzema to open the scoring. The moment ruined Karius’s Anfield career, with the club signing Alisson from Roma shortly after.
The game is scheduled to kick off 3 PM EST at Stade de France in Paris. All stats are taken from FBREF.com, and odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Liverpool
Road to the Final
Group Stage
Liverpool 3-2 AC Milam
FC Porto 1-5 Liverpool
Atlético Madrid 2-3 Liverpool
Liverpool 2-0 Atlético Madrid
Liverpool 2-0 FC Porto
AC Milan 1-2 Liverpool
Round of 16
Inter Milan 0-2 Liverpool
Liverpool 0-1 Inter Milan
Quarterfinals
Benfica 1-3 Liverpool
Liverpool 3-3 Benfica
Semifinals
Liverpool 2-0 Villarreal
Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool
10W-1D-1L, 30GF, 13GA, 23.3 xG, 9.9 xGA
Likely XI and Team News
4-3-3: Alisson - Andrew Robertson, Virgil Van Dijk (C), Ibrahima Konaté, Trent Alexander-Arnold - Thiago Alcántara, Fabinho, Naby Keita - Luis Díaz, Sadio Mané, Mohamed Salah
Jurgen Klopp expects Fabinho to recover in time from the hamstring injury that kept him out of the final domestic games of the season. Joe Gomez should be available from the bench after it was revealed the ankle injury he picked up against Southampton wasn’t serious.
Initially, Klopp was doubtful about Thiago Alcántara‘s chances of featuring after he sustained an Achilles injury against Wolves on the final day of the season. There’s been a new sense of optimism around the midfielder playmaker’s chances of starting in the last few days. If he doesn’t make it, expect to see Jordan Henderson’s name on the team sheet.
This was supposed to be Divock Origi’s last game for the club who is set to join AC Milan in the summer on a free transfer. Unfortunately, the club legend won’t be involved after suffering a muscular injury in training last week. He played a pivotal role in Liverpool’s 2019 UCL victory, scoring twice against Barcelona in the semifinals and scoring the winning goal in the final.
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Real Madrid
Road to the Final
Group Stage
Inter Milan 0-1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 1-2 FC Sheriff Tiraspol
Shakhtar Donetsk 0-5 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
FC Sheriff Tiraspol 0-3 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2-0 Inter Milan
Round of 16
Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 3-1 Paris Saint-Germain
Quarterfinals
Chelsea 1-3 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2-3 Chelsea (AET)
Semifinals
Manchester City 4-3 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 3-1 Manchester City (AET)
8W-4D, 28GF, 14GA, 20.7 xG, 16.6 xGA
Likely XI and Team News
4-3-3: Thibaut Courtois - Ferland Mendy, David AlaBa, Éder Militão, Daniel Carvajal - Luka Modrić, Casemiro, Toni Kroos - Vinícius Júnior, Karim Benzema (C), Federico Valverde
Carlo Ancelotti has no injury concerns after welcoming David AlaBa back to training. The Austrian had been struggling with an abductor injury picked up against Manchester City during the first leg of Real’s UCL semifinal on April 26.
Betting Tips
Three-way Moneyline: Liverpool (-105) | Draw (+270) | Real Madrid (+260)
Everyone has Liverpool nailed on favorites for this match, but I’m not so sure. In the Premier League, they failed to beat any of the Top 4 sides - Manchester City, Chelsea, and Tottenham - this season. In both the FA Cup and Carabao Cup finals, Chelsea held them to 0-0 before winning on penalties. They were fortunate to beat Inter Milan 2-0 in their first leg tie, and I think it would have been a different result if Nicolò Barella wasn’t suspended.
Real Madrid’s path to the final has involved three near impossible comebacks, which, combined with their history in this competition, makes them very dangerous. The players and fans believe it is their god-given right to win the UCL, which could be enough to carry them to glory.
Looking at the markets, I really like Real Madrid To Win or Draw, but I’m not keen on the -120 price tag. I think there’s better value to be had, so I won’t be making this bet unless the price shifts to -110 or better.
The positive news around Thiago Alcántara‘s chances of starting is good for Under bettors. His ability to get on the ball, dictate the tempo, and, more importantly, slow the game down lends toward a cagey and low-scoring opening 45 minutes.
Madrid have thrived off chaos this season and wants it in this match. There’s more chance of that happening if Liverpool starts with Henderson and Fabinho, who are too similar, and lack Thiago Alcántara‘s creativity and range of passing.
I can’t stress enough how vital David AlaBa‘s return from injury is for Real Madrid’s backline. The Austrian is one of the best left-backs in the world and has been smashing it for the last two and a half seasons as a left-sided center-back.
In this role at Bayern Munich, he helped Alphonso Davies become the player he is today by constantly communicating and telling him what to do. He will do exactly the same for Ferland Mendy, making him a better left-back and Real Madrid a stronger defensive unit. He’s also won the competition twice with Bayern Munich in 2013 and 2020, and that experience is invaluable.
When asked about Rodrygo starting in a press conference earlier this week, Ancelotti said:
“This is not a game for 11 players, many more will be important and the starting line-up is one of the smallest concerns I have.”
That leads me to believe that the Brazilian forward and Eduardo Camavinga will start on the bench and be introduced in the second half. In the hope that the pair can repeat the impact, they had against Manchester City in the semifinal second leg.
It also means Federico Valverde is likely to start and will be instructed by Ancelotti to play defensively and trackback to keep Andrew Robertson quiet. Allowing Vinicius Junior and Karim Benzema to stay high and try to cause Alexander-Arnold problems in behind.
Finally, we have Alisson and Courtois in between the sticks. You could make strong cases for either one being the best in the world, and their presence adds weight to a low-scoring match.
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals -115 | First Half Correct Score 0-0 +210 | Highest Scoring Half Second Half +100
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