Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
Wow. Thank you, Manchester City and Real Madrid, for playing out one of the most entertaining games of the season at The Etihad on Tuesday night.
Los Blancos showed incredible fight to come from two goals behind on three occasions to take a 4-3 defeat back to the SantIago Bernabeu. The lines are out for next Wednesday’s Second Leg, and City +105 on the Moneyline is looking very appealing, with Joao Cancelo set to return.
I have a play for the other Semifinal taking place on Wednesday. All stats are taken from FBREF.com, and odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Liverpool vs. Villarreal (Wednesday, 3 PM EST)
With Liverpool’s Moneyline sitting at -325, we’re going to have to delve deep into the markets to find value.
Looking at their recent fixtures backing Jurgen Klopp‘s side to score early would be a good way to go. In four of the six games before the Merseyside Derby, Liverpool led at halftime and went on to win, making Half-Time/Full-Time Liverpool/Liverpool -110 a worthy option. In five of those matches, Liverpool scored in both halves, which is available at the very attractive price of +110.
Another stat that makes a case for Liverpool to score early is this one I found for my Premier League Matchday 34 Best Prop Bets post where I backed Liverpool To Score In Both Halves -139 against Everton:
Liverpool are starting games at a ferocious pace and have scored their opening goal by the 22nd minute in their last six fixtures:
- Manchester United - Luis Díaz 5th minute
- Manchester City - Ibrahima Konate 9th minute
- Benfica - Ibrahima Konate 21st minute
- Manchester City - Diogo Jota 13th minute
- Benfica - Ibrahima Konate 17th minute
- Watford - Diogo Jota 22nd Minute
However, the first half of the Merseyside Derby has me concerned about these two plays for several reasons.
The first is Everton lined up in an ultra-defensive 4-3-3 formation that camped out on their 18-yard-box, frustrated, time wasted, and broke on the counter. Liverpool struggled against them in the opening 45 minutes, registering three attempts on goal with none on target. Villarreal are a much better and more experienced side that will execute a similar game plan.
The second is The Yellow Submarine’s star player Gerard Moreno (12 goals, 7 assists) is ruled out. I think Unai Emery will go with a 4-4-1-1 formation with Giovani Lo Celso behind Arnaut Danjuma and play for a 0-0 draw.
The last time Liverpool failed to score was 11 games ago against Inter Milan, and I don’t think Villarreal have the quality to pull off such a feat. The bet I’m recommending is Liverpool To Win To Nil +110.
Betting Tip: Liverpool Win to Nil +110
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
