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Euro 2020 - Positively Priced Player Props

Cristiano-Ronaldo

Cristiano-Ronaldo

© Tim Groothuis

I was pleased with my first batch of picks for the group stage. Domenico Berardi returned an assist at +500. Hakan Calhanoglu did not tally an assist, but he did have one shot on target at -110. Aleksandr Golovin also blanked for an assist, but his peripheral numbers were spot-on with my projections. He exceeded my pass projection of 60.5 with 68 attempts and led Russia in attacking third touches (54). Kieffer Moore was the one complete flop as he failed to score or put any of his three shots on target.

Settling on a consistent and balanced approach when it comes to selecting wagers has always been more important than hitting every bet, in my opinion. Player props are the hardest wagers to consistently get right, but a 40 percent win rate is a percentage that will continually keep you in the green thanks to the elongated odds across most of the markets.

In this article, my attention is focused on a selection of players primed for strong showings on Friday and Saturday. As always, the odds considered are provided by our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook.

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Sweden (-125) vs. Slovakia (+375) | Friday 9:00 am ET

Slovakia were surprise winners in their opening match. However, their 2-1 victory over Poland had much to do with their opponent finishing with ten men. Slovakia did play well, yet 11 shots and 42 percent possession were underwhelming stats for a team that played up a man for the final third of the match.

With that said, I like Sweden as money-line favorites after weathering an onslaught from Spain. The goalless draw with Spain was a testament to their defensive spine, specifically their center-backs and goalkeeper. Victor Lindelof had blocked a pair of shots and nine clearances, while Marcus Danielson had 11 clearances and seven key defensive actions (tackles + interceptions). Robin Olsen was the man of the match between the sticks on a busy outing, recording a clean sheet by stopping all five shots he faced.

Sweden will also be boosted by Dejan Kulusevski, who missed the match against Spain due to Covid. The return of the crafty winger gives Sweden a real impact super-sub should offensive reinforcements be needed. With Kulusevski unlikely to start, though, Sweden’s other rising start is the player to target on Friday.

Player in Focus – Alexander Isak (Sweden)

Isak was one of the top young stars in Spain this past season. The Swede became the first player aged 21 or younger to score 17 goals in La Liga since 2008-09 when Sergio Agüero hit the mark for Atletico Madrid. Isak’s breakout campaign featured a brilliant run of nine goals during a six-match scoring streak to begin the 2021 calendar year.

The slim 6ft 3in striker for Real Sociedad is a high-volume shooting target forward with an efficient scoring record over two seasons in La Liga (26 goals, 21.8 xG). Isak ranked sixth in La Liga with 17 goals from 15.5 xG and placed amongst the best attackers in a handful of essential statistics. He ranked fifth in shots per 90 minutes (3.0) and third in shots on target per 90 minutes (1.5), which saw him finish behind Lionel Messi (2.53) and just off the pace of Karim Benzema (1.55). His xG splits also stacked up well. He graded third amongst the top six scorers with 0.60 xG per 90 minutes, while his 0.19 non-penalty xG per shot placed him joint-fifth with 18-goal man Youssef En-Nesyri.

Most importantly, Isak truly shines when you run the eye test. He has tons of pace and a high level of tactical awareness, run recognition, and interpretation of space for a player that is still only 21. He is surprisingly smooth and elusive on the dribble despite his build and can produce goals from a wide variety of situations, as well as with both feet. The strides he has made in his development over two seasons in La Liga puts him firmly in the tier of soon-to-be household names.

Isak has tallied four goals in ten starts since becoming a regular for Sweden. The 21-year-old was the brightest attacker against Spain and was unlucky not to score just before halftime when Marcos Llorente deflected his goal-bound strike, from the edge of the six-yard box, onto the post. Isak also set up Sweden’s other best chance of the match, but Marcus Berg fired over the top of the goal from inside the six-yard box. Thus, the stage is set for Isak to open his goal tally against Slovakia. I will be backing him as an anytime goalscorer at +175.


Portugal (+220) vs. Germany (+125) | Saturday 12:00 pm ET

Saturday’s premium match will be between Portugal and Germany.

Portugal left things late against Hungary, but a deflected strike from Raphael Guerreiro and a pair of record-breaking goals from Cristiano Ronaldo were enough to secure a 3-0 win. Portugal had 69 percent possession and put six of their ten shots on target in a match where the defense did look beatable. Hungary generated some solid chances, but the underdogs had their lone goal disallowed in the 84th minute.

Germany’s 1-0 defeat by France was an absorbing affair. Die Mannschaft went behind early after an own goal and got bailed out by the linesmen late in the match when Mbappe was flagged offside after scoring a world-class goal. Coach Joachim Low has good reason to make some changes to his attack, having seen his side put only one of their ten shots on target even though they had controlled possession and attempted 268 more passes than France. It seems like a real possibility for Leroy Sané and Timo Werner to get the nods upfront at the expense of Serge Gnabry and Kai Havertz.

Player in Focus – Toni Kroos (Germany)

The best ball-playing midfielder in the world, Kroos completed 101 of his 111 pass attempts against France. He led Germany with 33 passes longer than 30 yards and placed second behind Joshua Kimmich in both medium (between 15-30 yards) and short passes (between 5-15 yards). The holding role in midfield puts Kroos in the distribution cockpit of one of the best possession teams at the tournament, which is why he tends to put up monster pass attempts numbers whenever Germany hold a definite advantage in implied possession differential.

With Portugal expected to concede time on the ball and field position to Germany, I would be comfortable backing Kroos to make 90+ passes at -143. If the match goes the way I anticipate it will, he will end up flirting with 100+ pass attempts.

Player in Focus – Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)

Ronaldo’s pair of goals against Hungary pushed him past Michel Platini and into sole possession of the all-time scorer crown in European Championship finals history. The 36-year-old came into the final stretch of the game as a non-factor, but a brace in the last five minutes reminded us that he is not ready to surrender his role as the main man for Portugal. Ronaldo converted a penalty in the 87th minute and added his second in stoppage time, circumnavigating goalkeeper Peter Gulasci on the dribble to score his record-setting brace.
Three shots and one shot on target against Hungary in a match where he was not at his best was the outcome needed for me to mention the following trends about his career shooting numbers at major international tournaments.

Ronaldo averaged 6.49 shots and 2.85 shots on target per 90 minutes at Euro 2016, and 4.18 shots and 1.97 shots on target per 90 minutes at the 2017 Confederations Cup. At the 2018 World Cup, he averaged five shots and 1.5 shots on target per 90 minutes. If you excluded the Euro 2016 final when he was forced off after 24 minutes, he has produced four or more shots on 13 of his last 15 matches at major international tournaments.

Three years have come and gone since the 2018 World Cup, but Ronaldo’s production has not been hindered. He has produced at least three shots and one shot on target on 17 of his last 18 competitive international appearances, averaging 6.6 shots and 2.8 shots on target per 90 minutes during the span. More importantly, he averaged 5.4 shots and 2.6 shots on target in eight matches against teams that qualified for Euro 2020.

Despite a tough match-up with Germany, his career shooting numbers suggest that five shots and two shots on target are a genuine possibility. Portugal’s captain is in the hunt for Golden Boot at what will likely be his final trip to the Euros, so expect him to throw caution to the wind and shoot early and often. Ronaldo to have 2+ shots on target at +125 is a lock for me. If you can stomach a riskier play, backing him for 5+ shots at +210 would be my move.


Spain (-278) vs. Poland (+750) | Saturday 3:00pm ET

The pressure is on Spain to deliver after a disappointing opening match against Sweden. Spain enjoyed 85 percent possession and ended the game with a record total of 917 passes. While they did not concede a shot on goal, they failed to produce a goal from 17 attempts. A goalless draw in a match where Spain set a few possession records will go down as one of the most significant missed chances of the tournament.

Poland, meanwhile, dropped their opener against Slovakia. The absence of a secondary goal threat to supplement Robert Lewandowski was something we knew would be an issue before Euro 2020. Things have been made even more difficult with key defensive midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak suspended for the clash with Spain.

I expect Luiz Enrique’s side to beat Poland. With that said, the money line is not appealing. My lack of confidence in Álvaro Morata also makes it hard to justify taking Spain -2 at +290. For me, the best way to capitalize on the favorites in this match is through the shots market.

Players in Focus – Ferran Torres (Spain)

Torres has pop potential when it comes to shot volume. In 33 appearances for club and country during 2020-2021, Torres produced four or more shots 11 times and two or more shots on target eight times. The 21-year-old also had four-plus shots in four of his last six international outings. That span included two outings with seven shots. He had four shots on target when he scored a hat trick against Germany last November and three with a goal against Kosovo in a World Cup Qualifier in March. Torres to have 4+ shots at +115 and 2+ shots on target at +150 represents value-betting opportunities since the odds reflect his relatively quiet outing against Sweden.

Player in Focus - Dani Olmo (Spain)

Olmo has averaged 3.6 shots and one shot on target in his last five starts for Spain. The 23-year-old has demonstrated that he does not need to play all 90 minutes to generate substantial numbers, averaging 72.2 minutes on the pitch during his last five starts. Against Sweden, he posted five shots and two shots on target in 73 minutes. One significant observation was his willingness to shoot regardless of location, as his average distance per attempt was 18.4 yards from goal. He took two shots outside the box, two from the edge of the penalty area, and a header from eight yards out.

I am higher on Torres since his odds are better, but Olmo still merits a look. With five shots and two shots on target in back-to-back appearances, backing Olmo to have 4+ shots at -134 seems like one of the better plays.

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