There are lots of contenders for the UEFA Best Player of the Tournament award at Euro 2020. The tournament field is full of players with the ability to challenge for the individual accolade. When evaluating the players likely to contest for the award, mapping the commonalities shared by the previous winners is the best place to begin the process of creating a shortlist of hopefuls.
All six of the winners played for a team that reached the final. By position, four of the six were midfielders. Antoine Griezmann became the first player to win both the Golden Boot and the Player of the Tournament at Euro 2016. He scored five of his six goals during the knockout stage and finished the tournament second in both shots and shots on target. Statistical similarities are hard to pinpoint since only two players, Iniesta and Xavi, shared the same position, team role, and overall skillset. In 2012, Iniesta took the award thanks to his consistent displays across all six games in Spain’s successful title defense. He averaged 74.6 passes per match, completed 89.2 percent of his attempts, and won three Man of the Match awards. Xavi, meanwhile, claimed the award in 2008 after best exemplifying the style of play that produced Spain’s second Euro title.
As for the first three winners, the commonality was an unmatched level of influence throughout the tournament. Hard-working midfielder Theodoros Zagorakis took the prize when Greece defied the odds (80-1) to win Euro 2004. Zinedine Zidane was the clear-cut winner in 2000 when he scored two massive goals and dominated the offensive statistics during France’s title-winning charge. The inaugural winner of the award was defender Matthias Sammer, who led Germany to their first title as a unified nation at Euro 1996.
Players in the race for the Golden Boot dominate the list of favorites for the UEFA Best Player of the Tournament at Pointsbet Sportsbook, but the historical trends suggest that it will require more than a sufficient goal total to win the award. Instead, it seems like a better approach is to target players that will significantly impact their team’s performances, emphasizing players who can reach the final.
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Kevin De Bruyne, Belgium (+900)
The 29-year-old has been one of the top, if not the best, creative midfielders in all of world football for the last five seasons. When you stack his domestic production from this season against the other players from Big Five European leagues headed to the Euros, the argument is even more apparent. De Bruyne ranked third in assists (12) and seventh in key passes (79) despite seeing just 25 Premier League appearances. On a per-90-minute basis, he averaged the most shot-creating actions (6.40) and placed second in assists (0.54).
An established commodity on the biggest stage for Belgium, De Bruyne has 21 goals and 38 assists in 80 international appearances. Looking at his production, two goals and seven assists came in 15 appearances across three major tournaments. He assisted three times at Euro 2016 and tallied two goals and four assists in ten total appearances at the World Cup. His strongest showing at a major tournament came at the 2018 World Cup, where he led all players in goal-creating actions (5) and placed third in shot-creating actions (33).
The Manchester City playmaker underwent “a small operation” on his face last week after suffering fractures to his nose and left eye socket in the Champions League final at the end of May. Although De Bruyne will miss the opener against Russia, missing one match is not enough for me to write off the Belgian, assuming he gets the green light for the second match against Denmark. He was my initial top choice to win the Best Player of the Tournament award, but it is hard for me to confidently back him until we can clarify his return.
Romelu Lukaku, Belgium (+1600)
Sticking with Belgium, Lukaku should put on a scoring clinic during the group stage. Russia, Denmark, and Finland are great matchups on paper before considering that the striker has scored six goals across eight total appearances against the trio. The most recent encounter came against Denmark last November when he bagged a brace in the Nations League. After revisiting all the matchups in the group stage, I am confident that Belgium’s all-time leading goalscorer will hold the lead in the Golden Boot race heading into the knockout rounds.
Looking beyond the good fixtures, his goal yields in past major tournaments were already foreshadowing a significant jump this time around. The 28-year-old scored two goals at Euro 2016, his first international tournament as a starter, and doubled his tally with four at the 2018 World Cup. Since the World Cup in Russia, he has been a goalscoring machine on a match-to-match basis. Lukaku has bagged 20 goals in his last 18 appearances. During the 18-match span, he failed to score on just four occasions and never went goalless in back-to-back matches.
The Inter Milan frontman will head to the tournament on a high note after scoring his 60th international goal to capture a 1-0 win over Croatia in the final warm-up match. His goal took the headlines, but it was a pair of near efforts that genuinely stood out. Lukaku rattled the crossbar with a rocket strike from the edge of the box seven minutes before his goal. The sequence was excellent as he did exceptionally well to hold the ball up 25-yards from goal with a defender on his back. Lukaku then used his strength to illude his mark and split a trio of defenders before unleashing a turn and strike worthy of a goal. Late in the match, he rose highest to meet a cross from the right-wing, but Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic was on hand to deny the goal-bound header.
Lukaku checks all the boxes required to be named the Best Player at Euro 2020. The list of players that can significantly impact their team’s performances on par with Lukaku is short, and Belgium have arguably the easiest run amongst the favorites to reach the semi-final. I will be making a substantial investment in Lukaku at +1600.
Bruno Fernandes, Portugal (+2000)
This Portuguese team is more well-rounded and better equipped in the attacking positions than the side that won Euro 2016. Cristiano Ronaldo might be entering his final major tournament, but the 36-year-old remains a dominant goal threat. Bernardo Silva, Diogo Jota, and Joao Felix are multidimensional attackers capable of creating and scoring goals from various positions. They also have two top attacking fullbacks, Raphael Guerreiro and Joao Cancelo, and reigning Premier League Player of the Year Rúben Dias in central defense.
With the pieces required to defend their title, the stage is set for Fernandes to begin his reign as the main man for Portugal. Euro 2020 will be the first major tournament where the 26-year-old will be a nailed-on starter. His rapid ascendency to stardom makes it easy to overlook that it was not until Euro Qualifying and the Nations League that the playmaker became a regular for coach Fernando Santos. Despite a slow start to his international career, Fernandes will be one of the most in-form players at the tournament.
Fernandes had a brilliant season for Manchester United. He tallied 18 goals and 12 assists in 37 Premier League matches and nine goals and five assists in 15 appearances across the Champions League and Europa League. The midfield ace was a cut above the rest in his first full season at Old Trafford, so it was not surprising to see him rank amongst the best across the Big Five European leagues in nearly every relevant statistical category. He placed second in key passes (96), third in shot-creating actions (168), and fifth in goal-creating actions (27). Compared to all midfielders, no one took more shots (110) or supplied more passes into the penalty area (96) than Fernandes.
Ronaldo is still Portugal’s talisman, but Fernandes is better positioned to the most significant contributor pulling strings from attacking midfield. Expect him to be one of the tournament’s top producers of key passes and shot-creation actions. His mobility and run recognition should also produce chances to score, especially when Ronaldo drops into midfield. As the conductor of one of the most underrated attacking sides at the tournament, Fernandes warrants consideration at +2000.
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