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The Premier League continues this weekend for Matchday Six. If we were to take a snapshot of the table right now, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United would all be tied for first place at 13 points, with Chelsea and Liverpool sharing the title due to having the same goal difference and goals scored.
The biggest surprise is that Brighton is currently in control of the final Champions League spot, while the reigning champions, Manchester City, are on the outside looking in at fifth. However, we may see some table turnover after the marquee early morning fixture between Chelsea vs. Manchester City, a game that I will feature in one of my best prop bets below.
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite Premier League prop bets of the weekend. All odds provided are from PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing.
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Best Bet No. 1 - Chelsea/Manchester City Total Corners Over 9.5
I mentioned it would be featured at the top, so let’s jump into it. Chelsea and Manchester City are both among the top five teams in corner kicks taken this season. The Cityzens are averaging 9.4 corners a game, while the Blues are averaging 6.2 of their own.
These two clubs are phenomenal defensively; they have each allowed only one goal so far this season. However, their defensive schemes have shown to be vulnerable to giving up corner kicks. Pep Guardiola‘s defensive tactics focus on possession, as he is likely a big believer in the old saying, “the best defense is a good offense.” Yet, in the two EPL games where they have controlled under two-thirds of the ball’s possession, they have given up a total of 10 corners (five in each).
On the other side of the matchup, Thomas Tuchel’s game plan is to compact the middle of the field and outnumber the opposition with two defensive midfielders. This strategy forces teams to play towards the bylines, resulting in a higher probability of corner kicks. Throughout the first five Matchdays, Chelsea is giving up an average of 8.4 corner kicks per fixture.
In the last ten Premier League matches between these two clubs, they have reached the over 9.5 mark in six of them.
Best Bet No. 2 - Michail Antonio Anytime Goalscorer (+135)
Michail Antonio was left out of the starting XI for West Ham’s midweek match against Manchester United, but that was not due to injury. In fact, it is because the Hammers want him fully rested for this weekend’s Premier League battle against Leeds United. (via Ben Dinnery)
For those wondering on the absence of Michail Antonio this evening: “We didn’t see fit to play him this evening, it’s simple as that. We’ve got a big game on Saturday at Leeds as well, so it was just a selection issue really. Mich’s perfectly fit and trained very well." #WHUFC
— Ben Dinnery (@BenDinnery) September 22, 2021
Despite missing last week’s game due to a double-yellow card suspension, Antonio is currently tied for the EPL Golden Boot award with four goals and is third in the league for most shots taken (17).
David Moyes has shaped the entire West Ham offense around Antonio this season. The Jamaican international has been involved in seven of West Ham’s 11 goals this season, and let’s not forget he’s missed a game. Antonio is averaging 1.26 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes, the third-most in the EPL.
While it is not always advised to back an away striker, you can make an exception when they are going to be up against Leeds United. The Peacocks have yet to win a game and have given up the third-most goals this season with 12. Unlike many EPL teams, they do not receive a boost from playing in front of their home crowd. Leeds has conceded five goals in their stadium this season and has the worst expected goal differential per 90 minutes for any home team in the league at -1.72.
If you are looking for more risk and more reward, Michail Antonio is currently at +500 to be the first goalscorer.
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