There may be just two matches set to take place in the English Premier League on Sunday, but one of them is a proper headliner.
For the first time this season, bitter rivals Manchester City and Manchester United will square off in the first Manchester Derby of the year.
Both teams find themselves inside the top five in the table, setting the stage for a compelling contest.
Below you will find an overlay from this match to consider, with the listed odds available at DraftKings.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
5-7-1 (42.3%), -0.92 units
MANCHESTER CITY v. MANCHESTER UNITED – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE NO DRAW – Yes (+115)
This is shaping up to be the most compelling Manchester Derby in some time given the recent form Manchester United has shown, but they are still set for an uphill battle against their crosstown rivals.
After two losses to open the campaign, Erik ten Hag and company have ripped off four consecutive victories in league play, vaulting the Red Devils to fifth in the table.
A shored-up backline including Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane in the middle have stifled United’s opponents, yielding just two goals during their four-match win streak (one a piece to Liverpool and Arsenal).
The goal scoring numbers have begun to spring to life, as well, with young stars like Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Antony paving the way.
When discussing goal scoring in the Premier League, however, the conversation begins and ends with the phenomenon that is Erling Haaland.
Upon his signing from Borussia Dortmund, many people naturally assumed that Haaland would endure a few growing pains early in his transition from the Bundesliga to the Premier League.
This isn’t to say that people speculated whether the 22-year-old Norwegian would have success in the league – they just figured it would take a bit of time.
On the contrary, not only has Haaland taken to the Premier League like a duck takes to water, but he’s on pace to shatter goal scoring records set by some of the greatest footballers in European history.
Haaland has scored eleven goals in his first seven Premier League matches, pacing a Manchester City team that looks as good as they ever have (if not better).
As solid as United’s been defensively of late, it seems hard to fathom Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne not connecting at least a couple of times at the Etihad on Sunday.
In what should be an entertaining contest, I’m expecting both teams to net at least one goal, with Manchester City prevailing in front of their home supporters (but I’m open to the notion that United could spring the upset given the trajectory they’ve been on).
My numbers rank this outcome – both teams scoring without the game resulting in a draw – as a probability of 50.3%, suggesting the current odds of +115 (implied probability of 46.5%) represent an overlay.
