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Hello all you NHL bettors out there, and happy Sunday! Yesterday’s bets left me at 1-1 on the day as the Wild posted a disappointing result and failed to cover the Puck Line! Kings salvaged the day with a big win in regulation so the writeup came out just about even. Not looking to do that again, though as we are here for profits! 8 games in the NHL tonight should provide the perfect opportunity to do just that, let’s dig in!
Records to Date:
Record: 74-52
Units +19.02
Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+
The last time we saw the Pittsburgh Penguins on the ice they got thoroughly embarrassed in one of their biggest games of the season to this point. The defense looked uninterested and the offense was beaten to a pulp physically. It was a bad look all around but as we know, it was just 1 of 82 games, and the Penguins’ track record suggests they will rebound nicely this afternoon. Since the start of February, the Pens are 5-3-1 at home, not a large track record but it shows a developing trend. Overall on the season, the Penguins are 18-9-5 which is not impressive, but they are still winning games often. There is also the narrative of the bounce back as Pittsburgh has lost 2 games heading into the game against Detroit given the week they just had. The Pens had played 3 games over 4 days, many of those on the road and they were without Evgeni Malkin at the end due to an illness. The Penguins also remain one of the best defensive teams in the NHL allowing just 2.59 goals per game which is the fourth-best in the league and should help right the ship against a visiting Red Wings team.
Speaking of the Red Wings, they have had an interesting season, to say the least. From what was expected to be a cellar-dwelling team they now sit in fifth place in the Atlantic Division with 60 points on the season. They won’t be making the playoffs but a tip of the cap to a group that was pretty banged up most of the season for playing on. The Red Wings are a predictable team now though, and I say that because their splits tell the story. At home, they are a very competitive team with a record of 17-12-5 but on the road things get messy. They are 9-19-3 away from the mitten this season and almost turn into a different team in the process. The Wings allow 3.9 goals per game as the away side, which is the third-highest rate of any team in the NHL. They also struggle to score goals on the road, averaging 2.35 per game, which is the second-lowest mark among all 32 teams! Given the poor splits of the Red Wings and the prospect that the Penguins will be playing angry after Friday’s debacle, I would recommend the Penguins on the Puck Line tonight as it’s the only bet with any real value.
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Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators Player Prop 6:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Let us wrap up the weekend in best bets with a player prop! These have been largely successful this season but most of the week nothing really struck me, until today. Filip Forsberg is the main focal point of the Predators offense and that’s easy to see just based on the eyeball test but also with his numbers. He leads the team in goals with 36 which is a career-high for him with like 15 games still to go in the season, no big deal. Forsberg also leads all Nashville forwards in shots on goal per game with 3.1 each time he laces up the skates. More recently, the Predator forward has topped his line of 2.5 SOG in 6 out of the last 10 games. Of course, that’s a hit rate of 60% and would put his implied odds around -150. For once, the sportsbooks are right on the money today as Forsberg is -150 to go over his shots prop. This means there is no crazy value like somedays in the writeup, but this bet is still a very solid play to wager on.
Forsberg will also have a great opportunity to cross this prop because of his opponent tonight, the Flyers. The Flyers have been one of the worst defensive teams this season and it has shown in the numbers. Philly allows an average of 34 shots on goal per game, which is the third-highest rate in the NHL. On top of that, in his first meeting with the Flyers, Forsberg posted 5 SOG and went over his prop line easily. Not great odds on the Nashville forward tonight but 2.5 is just too low for the leader of an offense, so hit the over.
The Picks
Pittsburgh Penguins Puck Line -1.5 (-120 on PointsBet)
Filip Forsberg, Over 2.5 SOG (-150 on DraftKings)
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