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There are only four games on the schedule in the National Hockey League on Wednesday night, with the main event featuring the Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild.
Below you will find an overlay to consider from this game that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
BOSTON BRUINS at MINNESOTA WILD
The Boston Bruins were able to eek out a win in Chicago last night against the Blackhawks, prevailing by a final score of 2-1 in overtime.
The star of the show was Chicago’s Marc-Andre Fleury, as the future Hall of Famer stopped forty-six of forty-eight shots against, stymying a Bruins team that dominated in all facets of the game.
Boston’s performance was especially promising considering it was the first night of back-to-backs on the road, with this evening’s game in St. Paul being the “bigger” of the two.
For the Bruins to perform the way they did in Chicago speaks volumes about where they currently stand, having won ten of their last twelve games overall.
Jeremy Swayman gets the nod for the B’s in net tonight, looking to extend his personal winning streak to nine straight.
Over his last eight appearances, the University of Maine product owns a .933 save percentage, a number that raises his season save percentage to .926 (fifth best in the NHL for goalies with at least twenty-four appearances).
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On the other side of the ice tonight for the Wild will be goaltender Cam Talbot, whose numbers have been uninspiring this season.
In thirty-six games, the 34-year-old owns a goals against average of 3.00 and a save percentage of .906, both numbers that are well below his career average in those respective categories.
His performance of late has been more concerning, as he has stopped just 188 of 216 shots against (.870 save percentage) over the course of his last eight appearances.
As good as Minnesota has been at home this season (17-7, +3.9 units according to EDGE Finder), they have struggled since February 18, going just 1-4 (-3.43 units) when playing at Xcel Energy Center.
With the form the Bruins bring into tonight’s game along with Minnesota’s struggles, it is easy to understand why Boston makes sense – however their moneyline price of -110 (implied probability of 52.4%) presents no value.
Although less likely, the Bruins’ -1.5-puck line odds of +270 (implied probability of 27%) represents an overlay, as my projections suggest they defeat the Wild by at least two goals 27.8% of the time (translates to odds of +260).
THE PLAYS
Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild – Bruins -1.5 (+270)
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