Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s betting on the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Buccaneers at Bills (-9): O/U 43.5
Over the past two games, Buffalo has not scored a first-half touchdown against the Patriots and Giants, but I think that changes here.
Tampa Bay allows a 50% conversion rate on third downs, which is the worst rate in the league and if there are a few quarterbacks that could give you positive field position, it’s Baker Mayfield (and Josh Allen).
Both Buffalo and Tampa Bay rank first and second in opponent turnover percentage per drive and have the opportunity to not only get turnovers but exploit each other’s defenses.
Tampa Bay has struggled to guard No. 1 wideouts and Stefon Diggs is next on the menu. The Bucs have allowed a 7.2 yards per pass attempt and over the past two weeks, that has gone up to 8.0 against Desmond Ridder and Jared Goff, now enter Josh Allen.
I played Buffalo’s 1H Team Total Over 13.5 at -115 odds and would pass on a 14.5, since 14 is a key number with two touchdowns. Shop around for the best odds.
Buffalo is -230 to make a first-half field goal and -135 to the Over 0.5 touchdowns in the first quarter, so I like the chances the Bills score at a minimum of 10 first-half points.
Pick: Bills 1H Team Total Over 13.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Rachaad White O/U 46.5 Rushing Yards vs. Bills
For a player prop, I targeted Rachaad White. The Bucs’ running back has gone Under his rushing prop of 45.5 yards four of six times this season and I like it to happen again.
White is 2-0 to the Under in the past two weeks. He recorded 60 rushing yards on 20 carries during that span (3.0 ypc) compared to 77 receiving yards on nine receptions.
Buffalo is beatable in the passing game against running backs, but they can hold running backs to lowly totals outside of home run hitters like Saquon Barkley (93 yards) and Devon Achane (101 yards).
Per SharpFootballAnalysis, White ranks 31st or worst out of 36 running backs with 50-plus carries in yards per carry (3.2), success rate (26.5%), rate of 10-plus yard runs (6%), yards before contact (0.86), and yards after contact (2.35).
Go Under 46.5 rushing yards (-115) down to 42.5 on White. He’s struggled against light boxes because Tampa Bay has struggled to run block. Shop around for the best odds.
Pick: Rachaad White Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 33-20-1 (62.2%) +9.1 units
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