Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.
Panthers at Bears (-4): O/U 39.0
In what’s expected to be one of the worst primetime matchups of the season, I actually believe this will be an entertaining and competitive game.
The Panthers burned us last week by the arm of Bryce Young’s three interceptions, while Chicago’s Tyson Bagent also tossed three picks of his own. See, that does sound entertaining, doesn’t it?
However, Justin Fields is day-to-day and might start this matchup for Chicago after missing three straight (1-2 record in that span) with a dislocated thumb.
Fields is 1-4 as a starter in five full games this season (0-3 ATS at home) with the only victory coming versus the Commanders on Thursday Night Football, a game I was on Chicago +7 and ML (+225).
The Bears offense has a turnover percentage of 18.8%, which is the highest in the league. Whether Fields or Bagent is under center, turnovers will likely continue to be a problem on a short week.
Carolina averages 4.4 yards per passing play, which is second to last, however, Chicago permits 6.8 yards per passing play (29th). Chicago’s opponents have converted 48.7% of third downs, which is last and something Carolina can take advantage of.
The look-ahead on this game was Chicago -1 and the Panthers ML was +105. I don’t think this past weekend should have moved this spread 2.5 points, so I am running it back on Carolina and taking the +3.5 at -110 odds.
If Fields is in, we can get a better number on Carolina, but if he is out, the spread will likely move down to +2.5 or +3 in favor of the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers +4 (1u)
Season Record: 42-21-1 (65.6%) +17.2 units
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