Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
Chiefs vs 49ers (-2): O/U 47.5
I have to believe that Kyle Shannah will keep it simple for Brock Purdy, get Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey the ball in creative ways, attack down the field with George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings -- play great defense, and focus on shutting down the run and containing Mahomes’ time to scramble.
Everyone knows you can’t rush Mahomes enough to stop him through the air, so don’t expect the 49ers to be aggressive rushing linebackers routinely, but use more schemes and movement to throw the Chiefs’ passing game off, while relying on the front four.
I think the 49ers win and that they have been the best overall team in the NFL for over 90% of the season, so play them on the ML at -120 odds out to -150 or -3.
Pick: 49ers ML (2u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Deebo Samuel O/U 78.5 Rush + Rec Yards vs. Chiefs
The 49ers’ dual-threat receiver recorded 96 total yards on 11 touches (8 rec, 3 rush) in the NFC Championship, and in his only Super Bowl, Deebo posted 53 rushing yards and 39 receiving yards on 8 touches (82 total yards).
Deebo averaged 8.7 yards after catch this year and carried the ball 40 times. I expect double-digit touches and when he has accomplished that feat, the 49ers’ star has gone Over 79.5 total yards all three times and 7-3 to the Over with seven-plus touches.
Play Deebo Over 79.5 rushing + receiving yards at -110 odds. I’d go to 80.5.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (0.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Travis Kelce O/U 70.5 Rec Yards vs. 49ers
Travis Kelce has recorded 70+ receiving yards in 12-straight playoff games, including 81 and 133 (SB record) in his past two Super Bowls.
Kelce’s recorded an amazing postseason thus far, catching 23 of 28 targets for 262 yards and three touchdowns as the top target for Patrick Mahomes. Kelce had 71, 75, and 116 yards this postseason and I don’t see much changing here given all he’s done historically and during this playoff run.
I played Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards at -125 odds on DraftKings and would go to 74.5.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 69.5 Rec Yards (0.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Super Bowl MVP Bets
0.25u: Christian McCaffrey (+460)
0.25u: Deebo Samuel (+2600)
Terrell Davis was the last RB to win Super Bowl MVP (1999), and Davis accounted for 157 rushing yards and three touchdowns. McCaffrey has recorded 128, 132, 106, 57, and 136 combined rushing and receiving yards (7 touchdowns) in his five career postseason games with the 49ers with back-to-back games of 100-plus total yards and two touchdowns.
There have been two wideouts win Super Bowl MVP in the last 14 years, but Deebo Samuel has the talent to add his name to that list. The 49ers’ dual-threat receiver recorded 96 total yards on 11 touches (8 rec, 3 rush) in the NFC Championship and in his only Super Bowl, Deebo posted 53 rushing yards and 39 receiving yards on 8 touches.
I would argue, that if either CMC or Deebo score two-plus touchdowns, chances are they can beat out Brock Purdy for Super MVP. I don’t see that scenario for the Chiefs unless Kelce scores two-plus touchdowns and Mahomes turns the ball over multiple times.
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Lunch Money Bets ($10 or less)
Jauan Jennings 1st TD (+3800)
Will there be a DOINK field goal attempt? Yes (+700)
1st missed field goal: Wide Right (+105)
Christian McCaffrey 3+ TDs (+900)
Deebo Samuel 2+ TDs (+1100)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 72-47-1 (60.5%) +15.88u
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