Vaughn Dalzell shares his full NFL Week 8 betting card. Coming off his first losing weekend Since Week 1, revenge is on the menu served with the Dolphins, Ravens, Patrick Mahomes, and more!
Cardinals at Dolphins (-4): O/U 46.0
Tua Tagovailoa is back for Miami and while I don’t expect 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, I do think Mike McDaniel will have a script for the first quarter that gets the Dolphins in the end zone.
Miami got De’Von Achane back recently and should be feeling confident their QB1 is back. On the other sideline, Arizona is coming off an emotional last-second win at home and has struggled defensively on the road in the first quarter.
Arizona has allowed a touchdown in the first quarter in two out of three road games this season and two straight. I like Miami to make it three straight. Give me the Fins 1Q Team Total Over 5.5 points at -118 odds at DraftKings.
Pick: Dolphins 1Q Team Total Over 5.5 (1u)
Bills (-3) at Seahawks: O/U 46.5
The Buffalo Bills offense has averaged 1.83 points per drive on the road this season (19th) compared to an NFL-best 3.71 points at home. This will be the Bills’ fourth road game in five weeks and the first trip of the season on the West Coast.
I don’t like that situation for Buffalo. Seattle won at Atlanta last week and flew back West, which isn’t ideal, but three of the past four games have now come at home, which is ideal for the Seahawks.
Give me the Seahawks +3 and on the ML. Bills will be so public especially if the spread moves to Buffalo -2.5.
Pick: Seahawks +3 (1u)
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Ravens (-8) at Browns: O/U 44.5
The Ravens offense has been poetic recently. Baltimore has gained 10 or more yards on 26% of their plays (1st) and reached third down at the lowest rate in the league (35.3%). I don’t see the Browns changing that much.
Last season, Baltimore put up 17 and 21 points in the first half against the Browns and this year, Baltimore has scored at least 14 points in the first half of five straight games and coincidentally, all five were wins.
I think Baltimore wins here and they roll in the first half with 14-plus points again. Give me the Ravens First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-118) up to 14.0.
Pick: Ravens 1H Team Total Over 13.5 (1u)
Patrick Mahomes O/U 0.5 Interceptions at Raiders
The Chiefs want to avenge a Christmas Day home loss last time out against the Raiders and with a -9.5 point spread, it’s tempting to back the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes has a stretch of six straight games with an interception and eight overall. However, the Raiders rank 29th in takeaway per possession (3.7%), and the Chiefs lead the NFL in rushing success rate (49.7%) whereas the Raiders are last (28.7%), so I don’t think we see many turnovers in this game on the Chiefs side.
I locked in Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions at -120 odds on FanDuel. The Raiders defense only has three interceptions through seven games.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions (1.5u)
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Russell Wilson O/U 199.5 Passing Yards vs Giants
The Pittsburgh Steelers won last week as an underdog thanks to the terrific play of Russell Wilson (264 yards, 3 total TDs), but that cannot be expected every week.
Versus the Giants, I expect the Steelers to run the ball a heavy amount after what Saquon Barkley just did to New York. Najee Harris is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games for the second time in his career and Jaylen Warren (season-high 44 rushing yards last week) is getting healthier week by week.
The Steelers have a bye week on deck, so they will want to get in and out with a win, but come out healthy. Give me Russ Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-110) against the Giants.
Pick: Russell Wilson Under 199.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)
Season Record: 36-30-4 (54.5%) +8.9 units
Additional Plays that moved on me:
1.5u: Carolina Panthers 1Q +3.5 (-118) at Broncos
Bryce Young is back and starting. There should be a script for the first two drives to create some potential for points and the Broncos have only led by more than three points in one first quarter this season. The current line is +2.5, which isn’t worth a unit.
1u: Chicago Bears +2.5 (-115) at Commanders
Jayden Daniels could play and this line could come back to Chicago +1 or even +2.5, but at Chicago -3, I couldn’t recommend it. Washington is 3-0 at home, but those three teams they beat are a combined 4-17 this year. I think Chicago wins with or without Daniels on the field, but I need a better price.
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