Happy Saturday! That means we have the NFL, right? I guess so, because the Texans head to Los Angeles for a date with the Chargers, while the Baltimore Ravens’ playoff hopes are on the line when they visit Green Bay to face a Packers squad on NBC that’s safely in the NFC playoff field. Here are my favorite bets for Saturday’s portion of the Week 17 schedule!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Texans at Chargers (-1.5): O/U 40.5
These squads met last year in the playoffs, and the Texans absolutely dominated that outing, winning 32-12. Justin Herbert went 14-of-32 passing with 242 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. This time around, both are in the playoffs, and Los Angeles enters on a four-game winning streak compared to a current NFL-best seven consecutive wins for Houston.
The Texans have been getting tons of pressure all year, ranking second in pressure rate (42.1%), seventh in sack rate (8%), and leads the NFL in completion rate (39.2%). The Chargers’ offense looked great against the Cowboys, but it has ranked fourth-worst in plays of 10 or more yards in the last six weeks, so I don’t exactly trust Los Angeles’ offense.
In five of the last seven games for Houston, the Texans have held their opponents to seven or fewer points in the first half and I think they can do that again. The Chargers struggles could come early forcing them to go Under the first half team total of 9.5 points (+110). The Chargers just played their first back-to-back games of the season at Kansas City and Dallas, but now travel back to the West, which could leave the Chargers sluggish in the first half.
Picks: Texans +1.5 (1 unit), Chargers 1H Team Total Under 9.5 (1 unit)
Omarion Hampton O/U 64.5 Rushing Yards vs Texans
Omarion Hampton has looked good in his three games since injury, posting 56, 61, and 85 yards in that order versus Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Dallas. However, he runs into Houston, who has one of, if not, the best rush defense and pressure rates in the NFL.
Houston is giving up 3.9 yards per carry to running backs (5th) this season and rank top five in yards allowed to running backs/full backs (108.9 ypg). Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders did have a day against Houston last week in a letdown contest, but I think the Texans can bounce back this week.
I don’t mind that Kimani Vidal, the Chargers secondary back is questionable for this game. If Vidal plays, we get value on Hampton’s Unders, if Vidal is out, Hampton likely sees two to three more carries and we hope the Texans rush defense stands strong. I like Hampton Under 64.5 rushing yards down to 60.5.
Pick: Omarion Hampton Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (1 unit)
Derrick Henry O/U 16.5 Rushing Attempts vs Packers
Why Derrick Henry didn’t play the final 12 minutes against the Patriots is beyond me, but this week, Baltimore has to lean all-in on Henry if they want to sneak into the playoffs. Tyler Huntley is starting at quarterback for the Ravens and Malik Willis for the Packers, so it’s now or never for Baltimore.
Henry is arguably the hottest running back in the league with three straight Overs on his props and 94, 100, and 128 yards in that span. Henry’s gone Over his rushing attempts prop in only two of the past four, but he posted 6.0 yards per carry or better in three of those four. If the Ravens want to win, they feed Henry early and often. I like the Over 16.5 rushing attempts at -125 odds for Henry.
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (1 unit)
Season Record: 118-94-1 (56%) +17.81 units | 7.09 ROI%
Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
