We are more than halfway through the 2024 NFL season so let’s take a look at the MVP market. Over the last decade, the race has been whittled down to 2 or maybe 3 quarterbacks. The NFL MVP has become synonymous with the best quarterback in a given season with signal-callers claiming the prize each of the last 11 years and 16 of the last 17 years. This season, however, the race may be down to 2 or 3 candidates, but a running back appears to have crashed the party.
Let’s run through a handful of the favorites courtesy of DraftKings and offer some advice on how to attack the market and weed out the pretenders from the true superstars.
MVP Contenders
Josh Allen (+150) - the quarterback for the Buffalo Bills is the current favorite. The veteran is the unquestioned leader of the Bills. His statistical profile is not awesome – his 2,691 passing yards rank 13th and his 20 TD passes rank T6 – but he has the Bills atop the AFC East and contending for the top season in the conference. Allen has 27 total TDs while turning the ball over just 7 times. Formerly known as too risky and loose with the football, Allen appears to cherish every possession far more than in the past. In addition, Josh Allen is making those around him better. That is the rarest of traits in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley (+250) – the running back for the Philadelphia Eagles is on pace to break the single season rushing record. The former New York Giant is on pace for 2,123 rushing yards. He has 982 rushing yards in the second half which is more than 30 NFL teams. Barkley has 481 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry in the fourth quarter alone this season. The veteran back has five 20+ yard 2H touchdown runs over the last three games, a feat matched by only Emmitt Smith (1992) and Chris Johnson (2009)…and they did it over the course of a full season.
Lamar Jackson (+400) – his candidacy took a massive hit Sunday night when the Ravens lost at home to Philadelphia. That said, the 2-time MVP is on pace to blow away last season’s eye-popping, MVP stats including passing yards - 4,302 vs. 3,678, rushing yards – 886 vs. 821, and Total TDs – 32 vs. 29. The Ravens are dependent on their offense to carry them this season more so than in the past and Jackson is central to that offense.
Watch more: Matthew Berry discusses Josh Allen’s historic night on FNIA
Close but no Cigar
Jared Goff (+650) – the quarterback of the team with the best offense and the best record through 12 games, Goff is competing at a ridiculously high level. He is completing 71.8% of his passes while averaging a healthy 8.8 yards per attempt with 22 TDs and 9 INTs. Four times he has led the Detroit offense to 40 or more points and in one of those games he completed all 18 passes he threw (42-19 win over Seattle).
Patrick Mahomes (+1300) – the league’s best player has to be found near the top of the odds board annually until he retires. That is how good he is. Specific to the 2024 season, Mahomes has the Chiefs tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFL at 11-1. He is working without his top receivers and behind what appears to be a leaky offensive line. By no means will he approach career numbers this season (except INTs) but he simply wins. The Chiefs’ won-loss record in addition to Mahomes’ reputation is why the veteran is among the favorites to win the award this season.
Read more: Connor Rogers’ 2025 mock draft
Maybe in 2025
Jalen Hurts (+3000) – tough to gain traction in a race that features a running back from your own team putting up highlight after highlight every week.
Baker Mayfield (+3500) – its as simple as the Bucs simply have lost too many games.
Jordan Love (+5000) – playing better of late but too many so-so games early and too many turnovers overall.
Fun Trivia Note: Absent from this list is Joe Burrow. The Bengals’ QB has 30 TD passes and just 5 INTs through 12 games. He is just the 7th quarterback with 30 or more TDs and 5 or fewer INTs. Its remarkable that Burrow is not an MVP candidate until you factor in the Bengals’ 4-8 record. Its remarkable that Burrow is not an MVP candidate until you realize the other 6 quarterbacks to compile such dominant seasons lost just 9 games...combined.
Prediction: This race will be won by either Allen or Barkley. Allen’s case rests on voters valuing his “sudden” maturity with the ball and his ability to lead a largely unproven cast of skill-position players. The Bills securing the #1 seed in the AFC would certainly help his cause. Saquon Barkley owns the wow factor on the ballot and may well be on his way to setting the all-time rushing mark in the NFL. With 4 of Philly’s last 5 games against the porous rush defenses of the Panthers, Cowboys, Commanders, and Giants, Saquon is a true threat to break the all-time mark for single season rushing yards. The value play in this tight race is on the human highlight reel, Saquon Barkley.
