Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s betting on Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, and more!
Lamar Jackson O/U 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Texans
Lamar Jackson has played four playoff games in his career and in the first outing during his rookie year, he threw two touchdowns, but in the next three postseason games, Jackson only accounted for one passing touchdown.
This season we have witnessed an obvious improvement from Jackson through the air. He’s tossed at least two touchdown passes in three straight home games and versus teams that made the playoffs, Jackson was 5-3 to the Over 1.5 passing touchdowns with Unders to the Steelers, Browns, and guess who, the Texans.
When Baltimore and Houston met this year, it was Week 1, so we can’t go off that 25-9 Ravens home win. However, we can go off Jackson’s career-highs in completion percentage (67.2%), passing yards (3,678), yards per completion (8.0), plus completions (307) and attempts (457) this year.
I think Jackson shows up and tossing two touchdowns for +112 odds on FanDuel is a good price even against a Texans team that allows 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. DraftKings and BetMGM moved this from +100 to -105 and I expect this to close in the -125 range.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Pass TDs (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey O/U 89.5 Rushing Yards vs. Packers
The 49ers’ star running back, Christian McCaffrey was the favorite to lead the playoffs in rushing (+185) entering the postseason with a bye week, so I’m expecting a solid outing from CMC.
CMC hit the Over on this number in two of three playoff games for the 49ers last season and has gone for 90-plus rushing yards in nine out of 16 games this season.
Green Bay gave up 128.0 rushing yards per game this season, which is the fifth-most permitted. The Packers were the only team ranked bottom 10 in rushing defense per game to make the postseason.
With Brock Purdy getting injured and the 49ers having quarterback issues last postseason, I expect McCaffrey to get a heavy workload. I played CMC Over 88.5 and 89.5 rushing yards at -114 odds and would go up to 92.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Aaron Jones O/U 71.5 Rush Yards (-110) vs. 49ers
As for the other starting running back in Packers versus 49ers, I am targeting an Under on Aaron Jones. Jones has rushed for 100-plus yards in four-straight games, so this is a sell-high spot for me.
The Packers had the ultimate game script for Jones to go for 100-plus in the previous game, and while hitting 100 against Dallas, Chicago, Minnesota, and Carolina is impressive, I expect the 49ers defense to shut down the run early.
San Francisco held Tony Pollard (22), Ezekiel Elliot (26), Kenneth Walker (63), Miles Sanders (42), and Kenneth Gainwell (47) all Under this number in last year’s postseason.
I played Jones Under 71.5 Rushing Yards at -110 odds and would go down to 68.5 for 1.5 units. Jones was 7-1 to the Under in this prop until his recent hot streak, so I have to fade him at the 49ers.
Pick: Aaron Jones Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Jared Goff O/U 272.5 Passing Yards vs. Bucs
Jared Goff finished 22 of 27 for 277 yards and one touchdown against the Rams in the Wild Card round. Detroit looked poised to score 40-plus points on Los Angeles before a second-half slugfest occurred and the Lions held onto a one-point victory.
I am expecting much more through the air from Goff this time around. Tampa Bay will likely blitz heavy and leave man coverage for Goff and this dynamic Lions offense to exploit; if they are quick. Goff finished 12th in time to throw this season (2.72 seconds) and had the 6th-most pressured throws on the year (113), so he’s used to pressure.
Tampa Bay’s last four games have come against Jacksonville, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia -- four unimpressive offenses that managed 44 total points (11.0 ppg) on the Bucs’ defense. Detroit will look much better than anyone has over the past month against Tampa Bay.
Give me Jared Goff Over 272.5 Passing Yards at -114 odds up to 279.5 for 1 unit. I have strong leans on the Lions 1Q Team Total Over 6.5 and the Lions full game spread of -6.5 as well.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 272.5 Passing Yards (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Travis Kelce O/U 60.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bills
Most of Pittsburgh’s passing success came in the middle of the field against Buffalo and their zone coverage last week and that’s something Kansas City and Travis Kelce can take advantage of.
Pat Frieumuth finished with 5 receptions on 8 targets for 76 yards vs Buffalo and a longest reception of 33 yards. That nearly mimicked Kelce’s success versus Miami as he totaled 7 catches for 71 yards on 10 targets.
Kelce only had 88 total receiving yards in the final three regular season games, so his 71-yard performance in the Wild Card was encouraging.
In last year’s playoffs, Kelce hit 78 or more yards in all three games, 95 or more in all three during 2022, and 109-plus in all three postseason games during 2021. That’s 10 straight playoff games he’s gone for at least 71 yards, including 96 and 118 versus Buffalo.
I’m on Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving Yards at -114 odds. I would play up to 64.5 before it loses value, but he’s a good ladder pick for this weekend up to 100 yards.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 67-44-1 (60.3%) +14.61u
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
