Well, after spending 77 hours in the Emergency room because of Crohn’s disease, I am happy to be home and more watch ready to watch some NFL Football on Christmas Day with the family!
Albeit, the matchups looked much more enticing, appetizing, appealing before the season started, but nonetheless, expect action and the favorites to do well. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
Here are my favorite bets for the Week 17 slate starting with three Christmas Day games. Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Dak Prescott O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Commanders
Washington is second to last in league for EPA pass defense, while Dallas is last, so we should see a fair share of big plays through the air. Both teams also rank bottom in the league for points per drive allowed, so I don’t have high expectations for either teams’ defense here. However, I do have faith in Dak Prescott leading not only my fantasy team to victory this weekend, but also Dallas.
Prescott torched Washington in the first meeting (3 TDs, 0 INT) and the Commanders defense hasn’t gotten better. This is a great matchup for Dallas after playing Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and the Los Angeles Chargers. Prescott should feast, so I am going Under 0.5 interceptions and like a sprinkle on anytime TD at +400 or better.
Pick: Dak Prescott Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit), Dak Prescott anytime TD (0.25 unit)
George Pickens anytime TD vs Commanders
George Pickens has had a monster year with 88 receptions (8th), 1,342 yards (3rd), and 9 touchdowns (7th). Pickens is one short of double digit touchdowns and 12 receptions shy of 100 receptions, something I am sure he wants to accomplish over the next two games. Washington is a great opponent for that as mentioned in the Prescott piece, the Commanders pass defense is one of the worst across the NFL.
Pickens had four receptions on six targets against Washington in the first meeting as CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson caught all three touchdowns of Prescott’s touchdown passes. I think it’s Pickens turn and at +135 odds, I like that even more. His 2+ TDs is +1100, which is a fun small bet or long shot parlay.
Pick: George Pickens anytime TD (1 unit)
David Montgomery Anytime TD vs Vikings
I was way off on David Montgomery last week, but the Detroit lions pretty much abandon the run altogether against the Steelers. Detroit missed three offensive lineman last week and has at least one of them back today (Glasgow), plus this a much more positive matchup regardless of the news entering Christmas.
Minnesota has great pressure rates against the pass, but they’ve played some porous opponents lately, and I think Detroit wants to at least establish the run in this divisional game. Minnesota upset Detroit 27-24 as +10 point underdogs in the first meeting and the Lions abandoned the run early. Montgomery did score in that game and led the team in carries (11) and rushing yards (40). For a half-unit, I will run it back on Montgomery to score a touchdown ay +155 odds in hopes I was a week too early.
Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (0.5 unit)
Jared Goff O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Vikings
The Detroit Lions defense has had some serious issues lately, but in a desperation game against a backup quarterback, I’d say the Lions take care of business today.
However, I am looking at Jared Goff and the Lions offense/ Detroit has turned the ball over on 4.8% of possessions this season, ranking the best in that department. Goff has five interceptions on the season, which is why his odds are juiced to -160.
Despite the heavy price, I will take Goff to go Under his interceptions prop and hope that the bruised and battered offensive line improves or gets a body back today. Minnesota has gotten terrific pressure rates lately, but playing the Giants, Cowboys, and Commanders over the last three would boost those numbers a bit.
Pick: Jared Goff Under 0.5 Interceptions (Risk 1 unit)
Bo Nix O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Chiefs
My last interception prop is to another favorite, Bo Nix. Nix should not have to do much against the Chiefs in order to secure a win. In the first meeting, Denver won 22-19 and Nix didn’t throw a touchdown nor interception, but had 295 yards through the air on 24-of-37. That volume likely drops today and it’s being reflected in his odds.
However, his interceptions prop is about +100 to -120 at a lot of places, so I am jumping on that Under. He tossed a pick against the Jaguars in a loss last week, but had four touchdowns to zero interceptions the week prior against the Packers. Nix has 10 interceptions on the season and if he wants the No. 1 seed, all you have to do is play it cool at Kansas City. The Chiefs playoff hopes are over, so the hype around this game allows for Nix to focus on playing a clean game and his defense will do the rest.
Pick: Bo Nix Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit)
Christmas Day Miracle Parlay
Every Christmas you have to throw a $5 or $10 Hail Mary or Christmas Miracle play out there. Well, mine will be for three difference players to score two touchdowns today with their prices at DraftKings.
George Pickens (+950)
David Montgomery (+1000)
RJ Harvey (+370)
Shop around for the best odds, but this is +54185 parlay odds at DraftKings. $5 would win over $2,700! Wouldn’t that be lovely? Best of luck and happy holidays!
Season Record: 117-89-1 (57%) +20.56 units | 8.35 ROI%
Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
