Vaughn Dalzell is riding the Week 3 trend that points toward 0-2 teams, plus a prop in the Steelers and Chargers matchup.
Bears at Colts (-1): O/U 43.5
While the Indianapolis Colts are 0-2, they are still a playoff-hopeful team in a weak AFC South division. Indy will look at its first home win when hosting a road rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) who has led Chicago to 148 and 205 total yards.
The Colts allowed the second-worst completion percentage through two games (78.3%) against CJ Stroud and Malik Willis. However, those four had the fourth-fewest passing attempts (46) and the ninth-fewest passing yards (356). The Colts defense hasn’t grabbed an interception yet and this seems like a good spot.
I played the Colts ML at -120 odds and would go to -130. I lean the yes to Williams throwing an interception at -130 odds as well. Williams has thrown two picks and been sacked nine times in two games with zero touchdowns.
Teams that started the season 0-2 are 48-32-1 ATS (60%) over the past 10 seasons in Week 3. That applies to the Panthers, Jaguars, Ravens, Bengals, Titans, Giants, Rams, Broncos and Colts.
Pick: Colts ML (2u)
Jaylen Warren O/U 26.5 Rushing Yards vs. Chargers
Jaylen Warren went from a 30% snap share to 47% over Weeks 1 and 2 and his rushing attempts increased from two carries for seven yards to nine carries for 42 yards, so it’s obvious his hamstring is doing much better.
Chuba Hubbard and Zamir White both went over this 25.5 number against the Chargers and I think Warren’s workload continues to trend toward a 50/50 split with Najee Harris as the season goes on, so give me Jaylen Warren Over 26.5 rush yards at -110 odds and would go up to 29.5.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
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Ravens (-1) at Cowboys: O/U 47.5
The Ravens are the best 0-2 team in football and despite Dallas being so good at home, winners in 16 of the past 17, they are a fade for most of the season to me.
Dallas started to rotate multiple running backs in Week 2 because they realized a 2021 trio of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliott would not work amid a blowout loss. The Cowboys didn’t go out and make much of a difference in the offseason, while the Ravens did all they could to replace what they lost.
I trust that Lamar Jackson and the presence of Derrick Henry in this game will be enough to beat Dallas. This Ravens team is more than a playoff contender and can make a statement to themselves with a road win to avoid 0-3. I played Baltimore on the ML at -116 odds and would go out to -130.
Pick: Ravens ML (1u)
Panthers at Raiders (-6): O/U 40.0
Carolina has been the worst team in all of football and if what Adam Thielen says is true, it’s not a Bryce Young problem but an offensive team problem, then maybe Andy Dalton will be the temporary answer.
In Dalton’s one start for Carolina last season, he went for 361 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 34-of-58 passing (58.6%) in a 37-27 loss to Seattle. Anything close to that and Carolina should be in it to win it Week 3.
Las Vegas played two road games to start the season at Los Angeles and Baltimore. The Raiders now fly back across the country for the first home game, which isn’t always a great spot to back a team. Las Vegas scored seven total points in the first quarter of both road games and 13 overall points in the first half of Weeks 1 and 2.
Carolina has only scored 13 total points in two games, so while this is an unpopular bet, I will rock with the Panthers here early and get in and get out. I played Carolina’s First Quarter Spread of +1.5 at -128 odds on FanDuel and would play the +0.5.
Pick: Panthers 1Q +1.5 (1u)
Packers at Titans (-3): O/U 38.0
Jordan Love is questionable for this Week 3 matchup and I think Green Bay holds him out here and plays Love for Week 4’s divisional matchup with the Minnesota Vikings.
Malik Willis went 12-of-14 (85.7%) for 122 passing yards and one touchdown in Week 2’s 16-10 win over the Colts, but this is a great spot to fade him. Willis started his career in Tennessee, so if anyone knows how to gameplan and give Willis fits, it’s the Titans staff.
Will Levis has made a few boneheaded plays through two games and after his coach called him out, I’d expect the best outing of the early season from this Titans offense.
I took the Titans -2.5 at -118 odds and would play the -3 out to -110 odds.
Pick: Titans -2.5 (1u)
Season Record: 9-9-1 (50%) +1.85u
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