Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the Cowboys vs Giants on TNF, plus the 49ers vs Patriots, and player props on Chris Olave and Josh Jacobs.
Cowboys and Chiefs ML Parlay (-110)
Cowboys ML (-225) at Giants
Chiefs ML (-310) at Chargers
Daniel Jones is 1-7 against Dallas in his career and 1-13 on Primetime (0-4 vs Dallas, 0-3 on TNF). However, New York is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games as home underdogs and attracting money against Dallas.
With Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are 12-2 against the Giants with 12 straight wins. Since 2017, the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS against the Giants and 6-1 ATS in New York (New Jersey).
Since 2021, Dallas is 11-4 ATS as road favorites overall, plus a really good team to back off a loss. Since 2021, Dallas has gone 12-3 on the ML and 11-4 ATS coming off a loss.
For Kansas City at Los Angeles, the Chiefs are the much better team and sitting between 7 and 7.5 point favorites. Kansas City has won five straight regular-season meetings and seven of the previous 10 against Los Angeles.
The Chargers’ Justin Herbert is banged up and hasn’t eclipsed 150 passing yards in any of the three games he played. Kansas City will have a plan for the Chargers rushing attack and while I like them to cover, I will use the Chiefs in my ML Parlays.
I paired Dallas (-225) and Kansas City (-310) on the ML together and got -110 odds at DraftKings. I’d go out to -120 and I played Dallas -5 (-110) to get a head start on a winning weekend.
Pick: Cowboys and Chiefs ML Parlay (1u), Cowboys -5 (-1u)
College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. Bet the BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AMET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Patriots at 49ers (-10): O/U 41.0
The Patriots are coming off a 24-3 loss to divisional rival New York and now go on the road, across the country to take on the 49ers.
Going back-to-back weeks against such physical defenses is no simple task and it’s one that I don’t think the Patriots offense is up for. Jacoby Brissett ranks 30th in the league with four deep ball attempts, 30th in passing yards (368), 16th in red zone passes (10), and 32nd in yards per pass attempt (5.3).
The Patriots quarterback hasn’t thrown for 150 yards in a game yet as New England has relied on the ground game (8th-most yards). Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson will be the two key players for the 49ers to focus on. Despite Hunter Henry’s early season success, San Francisco has been one of the best teams in the NFL against tight ends over the past three seasons.
I don’t see New England putting up a ton of points and with the 49ers at 1-2 with two straight losses to the Rams and Vikings, I expect a dominant bounceback against a bottom-five team in the NFL. I took the 49ers -10 at -117 odds on DraftKings and would go out to -10.5.
Pick: 49ers -10 (2u)
Chris Olave O/U 5.5 Receptions at Falcons
Chris Olave has consistently gotten more involved in the Saints offense week-to-week and with back-to-back games of 81 and 86 yards, we could expect Olave to receive a fair share of targets in Week 4.
The Saints are underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 at the Atlanta Falcons, and if New Orleans does struggle after putting up a season-low 12 points in a loss to the Eagles, well Olave will be peppered with passes.
Olave ran a season-high 24 routes last week (14 and 20 in Weeks 1 & 2) and had an 83.6% snap share, which was also his early season high. He is coming off his first touchdown of the year last week and second straight outing with six targets (he caught all six), so it’s time to buy into Olave’s receptions prop.
I could see at least eight targets here and last season, Olave had a monster seven-reception, 114-yard game with a touchdown on nine receptions against the Falcons. I played Olave Over 5.5 receptions at +108 odds on FanDuel and would go down to -110.
Pick: Chris Olave Over 5.5 Receptions (1u)
Josh Jacobs Anytime TD (+105) vs Vikings
Through three games, Josh Jacobs had 10 red zone rushing attempts, ran 26 routes, and recorded 65 total touches, yet he has not scored a touchdown for the Packers.
Minnesota is 3-0 and coming off a 34-7 beatdown over Houston, so this is an ideal fade spot for the Vikings off a big win and going into Lambeau as a divisional road underdog.
Jordan Love is expected to return for Green Bay, and if he does, I’d still expect a heavy dosage of Jacobs in relief of Love. Malik Willis did a terrific job as a spot starter in Weeks 2 and 3, which benefited Jacobs as he tallied 32 and 16 rushing attempts.
Despite Love potentially returning, I could see another 15-plus rushing attempt outing from Jacobs hosting a Minnesota defense that allowed the 49ers’ Jordan Mason and Rams’ Cam Akers to score back-to-back weeks against them.
I grabbed Jacobs to score his first touchdown of the season at +105 odds on FanDuel and sprinkled 2-plus TDs (+700) and the first touchdown scorer of the game (+550).
Pick: Josh Jacobs Anytime TD (1u)
Season Record: 13-11-2 (54.1%) +
Last Week: 4-3 ( ) +
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
