The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are trending in very different directions as they prepare for an NFC South rematch from Week 4. The Falcons came away with the 26-24 win in that matchup, despite not scoring an offensive TD, while the Saints were still considered one of the most high-powered offenses in football.
Fast forward just six weeks and the Saints are on a seven-game losing streak, have fired head coach Dennis Allen, Rashid Shaheed is out for the season, Chris Olave is in the concussion protocol, and they just traded away Marshon Lattimore right before the deadline. Meanwhile the Falcons are sitting atop the division at 6-3, Kirk Cousins has found his groove, throwing seven touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last two games, and Bijan Robinson believes Atlanta is the best team in the NFC (https://www.nbcsports.com/watch/nfl/bijan-robinson-believes-the-atlanta-falcons-are-the-best-team-in-the-nfc).
While the Saints are in shambles, one bright spot has been Alvin Kamara. He is coming off a monster game with 155 rushing yards and 60 receiving yards in Derek Carr’s return from injury. If you expect Kamara to keep things rolling in Week 10 against the Falcons, look to bet his OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-120), 38.5 receptions (-110) and even an Anytime TD (-125). In addition to Kamara, do-everything playmaker Taysom Hill got more involved in Week 9, finding the end zone last week for only the second time this season. The last time being in Week 4 against the Falcons where he scored two rushing TDs. If you think that trend continues this week, you can take Hill’s Anytime TD odds (+135).
For the Falcons, it’s important to note that their No. 1 WR, Drake London, left early in Week 9 with a hip pointer and his status for this game remains uncertain. If London, misses this matchup look for Cousins to heavily target Darnell Mooney and Bijan Robinson. Mooney has tallied at least 80 receiving yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games, while Robinson has accounted for at least 100 combined rushing/receiving yards in four straight weeks. If you expect Cousins to stay hot and light up the depleted Saints secondary, look to bet Cousins’ OVER 233.5 passing yards (-115). Darnell Mooney’s props have not posted but when they do, look to take the OVER on his receiving yards. Also look at Bijan Robinson’s rushing/receiving yards. Consider the OVER there as well.
Other than those plays mentioned above, lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to watch Falcons @ Saints
- Date: Sunday, November 10, 2024
- Time: 1PM EST
- Site: Caesars Superdome
- City: New Orleans, LA
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Falcons @ Saints
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons (-192), New Orleans Saints (+160)
- Spread: Falcons -3.5
- Total: 46
This line opened Falcons -3 with a Total of 48.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bets
Expert picks & predictions for Falcons @ Saints
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between Atlanta @ New Orleans:
· Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
· Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Falcons laying the 3.5 points.
· Total: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Total of 46.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Betting Trends and Stats
· The Saints are 1-4 against the handicap in their last five games as a home underdog.
· The Falcons’ average margin of defeat in their two losses as a favorite this season is 14 points.
· Four of the Saints’ last five home games have gone OVER the Total.
· Atlanta is 5-4 ATS and 4-5 to the OVER this season.
· New Orleans is 3-6 ATS and 6-3 to the OVER this season.
Quarterback matchup for Falcons @ Saints
- Atlanta: Kirk Cousins – completing over 70% of his passes over the last 2 weeks with 7 TDs and 0 INTs.
- New Orleans: Derek Carr – was 18-31 for 236 yards in his return from an oblique injury last Sunday.
Falcons @ Saints injury update
· Atlanta WR Drake London (hip) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Atlanta DE Grady Jarrett (Achilles) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Atlanta LB Trot Andersen (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New Orleans WR Chris Olave (concussion) is doubtful for Sunday’s game.
· New Orleans WR Cedric Wilson Jr. (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New Orleans RB Jamaal Williams (groin) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New Orleans CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
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