It’s only Week 9, but this game could be the defining moment in the seasons of the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. The Bills enter this matchup with a 6-2 record thanks to a three-game winning streak, while the Dolphins are clinging to seemingly faint playoff hopes with a 2-5 record.
However, there is ONE thing that gives the Dolphins that hope: a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.
Even though Miami lost to Arizona on a walk-off field goal in Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion in Week 8, the Dolphins’ offense looked revived and at times even explosive. Tyreek Hill had his most receiving yards since Week 1. De’Von Achane averaged 9.7 yards per carry and nearly cracked the century mark. Raheem Mostert hit paydirt twice. It’s safe to say the anemic offense that was on display with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley under center for the previous four weeks is in the rearview mirror -- as long as Tua stays healthy.
While the arrow is pointing in the right direction for the Dolphins, they are taking on a Bills’ team that already defeated them Week 2 in Miami. A loss to Josh Allen and the Bills Mafia this week would pretty much all but end their chances of making a run at the AFC East title.
Josh Allen, who is the co-favorite to win NFL MVP with Lamar Jackson at +300, didn’t have to do much in these team’s first meeting. He was an efficient 13-of-19 for 139 yards with 1 TD and no picks, while it was James Cook who did most of the damage, tallying three total touchdowns. If you think that trend continues in this rematch, his anytime TD is -165 and 2+ TDs is +340.
Last week, Allen and Cook took their act on the road and carved up the Seahawks in a 31-10 victory. Miami will need to slow down Allen and his plethora of weapons, including newly acquired WR Amari Cooper who made his presence known right away in his Bills debut but then only saw three targets last week. Don’t be surprised if Allen’s new weapon is more involved in the gameplan this week. His anytime TD odds are +165.
Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two to consider in addition to those TD Markets.
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Game Details and How to watch Dolphins @ Bills
- Date: Sunday, November 3, 2024
- Time: 1PM EST
- Site: Highmark Stadium
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- TV/Streaming: CBS
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Game odds for Dolphins @ Bills
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (+220), Buffalo Bills (-270)
- Spread: Bills -6
- Total: 49.5
This line has shifted towards Miami by 0.5 points and the Total has increased 0.5 points.
Betting Trends and Statistics for the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills
· In his last 2 starts against the Bills, Tua has thrown for 173 and 145 yards with a total of 2 TDs and 5 INTs.
· The Bills have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC East opponents.
· The Bills have won 8 straight at home against the Dolphins.
· Each of the Dolphins’ last 3 games in Orchard Park have gone OVER the Total.
· The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS and 2-5 to the OVER in 2024.
· The Bills are 5-3 ATS and 4-4 to the OVER in 2024.
Quarterback matchup for Dolphins @ Bills
- Miami: Tua Tagovailoa – was 28-38 for 234 yards with 1 TD last week against the Cardinals in his return from his most recent concussion.
- Buffalo: Josh Allen – completed 70.6% of his passes (24-34) last week @ Seattle for a total of 283 yards with 2 TDs and his 1st INT of the season.
Injury update for the Dolphins & the Bills
· Miami S Jevon Holland (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Miami LB Bradley Chubb (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Miami DT Zach Sieler (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Miami CB Storm Duck (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Miami CB Kader Kohou(undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Buffalo WR Curtis Samuel (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Buffalo LB Terrel Bernard (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
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Expert picks & predictions for Dolphins @ Bills
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, injuries, and the schedule.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Miami @ Buffalo
· Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Bills on the Moneyline.
· Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Bills against the spread.
· Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 49.5 points.
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