Thursday Night Football returns to SoFi Stadium in Week 16 for a pivotal AFC West Divisional matchup between the Denver Broncos (9-5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6). These two teams currently occupy the final two Wild Card spots in the AFC.
If Sean Payton and the Broncos can pull out a victory, they will earn a playoff berth for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 in the 2015 season. Denver began the 2024 campaign with 2 losses but have won their last 4 and gone 9-3 in their last 12 games. Sunday’s 31-13 win over Indianapolis was not that one-sided. The Colts seemed to be in control leading 13-7 in the 3rd quarter when Jonathan Taylor broke free for an apparent touchdown to give Indy a 2-score lead. Taylor dropped the ball before crossing the goal line and it went out of bounds for a touchback. Denver outscored the Colts 24-0 from that point. The Broncos’ struggles Sunday can be traced directly to rookie QB Bo Nix who threw for just 130 yards and 3 INTs.
The Chargers have lost 3 of their last 4 after opening the season 7-3. Despite the recent streak, John Harbaugh has the Chargers poised to make the playoffs after winning just 5 games last season. This past Sunday, though, LA allowed the Buccaneers to score on 8 of their first 10 possessions (4 TDs, 4 FGs). The Chargers allowed a season high 40 points and 506 total yards. The major issue on offense is an inability to run the ball the last 3 weeks. Against the Bucs they rushed for a season-low 32 yards and now have just 182 rushing yards total in the last 3 games. No coincidence J.K. Dobbins went on the IR with a knee injury just before this streak began.
These two teams met in Denver in Week 6 and the Chargers controlled the bulk of the play building a 23-0 lead through three quarters before eventually winning 23-16.
Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Broncos at Chargers
· Date: December 19, 2024
· Time: 8:15 PM ET
· Site: SoFi Stadium
· City: Inglewood, CA
· TV/Streaming: Amazon PV
Latest Game Odds for Broncos at Chargers
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
· Moneyline: Denver Broncos (+124), Los Angeles Chargers (-148)
· Spread: Chargers -3
· Total: 42.5
This spread sits where it opened with the hometown Chargers favored by a field goal. The Total has dropped 0.5 points. Perhaps the market sees Bo Nix as hitting the proverbial wall? Mix that with a Chargers’ team that is desperate to establish the run despite their recent struggles to do so and the result is a recipe for a low-scoring Thursday Night special.
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Expert picks & predictions for Broncos at Chargers
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday’s game between Denver and Los Angeles:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
- Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play ATS on the Chargers.
- Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total OVER 42.
Broncos at Chargers Stats, Betting Trends
· The Broncos are 11-3 against the spread this season.
· The Broncos are 8-5-1 to the OVER this season.
· The Chargers are 9-4-1 against the spread this season.
· The Chargers are 5-9 to the OVER this season.
· The Broncos have covered the spread in 5 straight.
· 4 of the Chargers’ last 6 games have gone OVER the Total after 7 of the first 8 went UNDER.
· The Chargers’ Week 6 win over the Broncos is their only win against a team with a winning record this season.
· The Broncos’ +89-point differential is 2nd-best in the AFC behind the Bills (+135).
· 4 of Denver’s 5 losses have been by one score.
· The Chargers are 1-3 in primetime games this season.
· Denver is 2-0 in primetime games this season.
Quarterback Matchup for Broncos at Chargers
· Denver: Bo Nix – the rookie’s 130 yards passing against the Colts was his 2nd lowest total of the season. He did throw 3 TDs but also tossed 3 INTs. He now has 5 INTs in the last 2 weeks.
· Los Angeles: Justin Herbert – the veteran threw just his 2nd INT of the season (1st since Week 2) Sunday against the Bucs. He had thrown 357 passes between INTs (5th longest streak in NFL history). That said, he was held to under 200 passing yards for the 7th time this season.
Broncos at Chargers Injury Report
- Denver CB Patrick Surtain II (ankle) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Denver CB Riley Moss (knee) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Denver RB Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Denver DT D.J. Jones (finger) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Denver DL John Franklin-Myers (foot) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles LB Denzel Perryman (groin) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles TE Will Dissly (shoulder) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles CB Kristian Fulton (knee) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert (ankle) is probable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles CB Elijah Molden (knee) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles WR Quentin Johnson (ankle) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles DT Otito Ogbonnia (pelvis) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
- Los Angeles CB Cam Hart (concussion) is questionable for Thursday’s game.
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