The AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs open Saturday afternoon in Denver when Sean Payton and the Broncos take the field as a slight favorite against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. For a time, the Bills were favored over the top seed in the AFC, but the line is back to where it opened with Bo Nix and co. favored by 1.5 points.
Your attention in this game immediately goes to the matchup of the Bills’ offense vs. the Broncos’ defense. After a typical superhuman performance in the Wild Card round win over the Jaguars, Josh Allen leads a Buffalo attack that was the No. 4 scoring offense in the league averaging 28.2 points per game. The Denver defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL allowing just 18.3 points per game.
The biggest challenge for Sean McDermott and the Buffalo coaching staff is to keep Josh Allen upright. The Orange Crush is back in the Mile High City. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season (the Falcons were No. 2 with 57). To put that number in perspective, the Bills’ pass rush including their one sack of Trevor Lawrence last weekend has accounted for 37 sacks.
This is the third time these teams have met in the postseason. The Bills have won both previous games: 31-7 in the Wild Card round last year and 10-7 in the AFC Championship in January of 1992.
Lets dive into the matchup a little deeper and see where the numbers, quarterbacks, and injuries take us as we seek out an advantage or two.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates courtesy of Rotoworld, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Game Details and How to Watch: Bills at Broncos
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 4:30PM EST
- Site: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
- City: Denver, CO
- Network/Streaming: CBS
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Game Odds: Bills at Broncos
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (-108), Denver Broncos (-112)
- Spread: Broncos -1.5
- Total: 45.5 points
This game opened at Broncos -1.5 with the Game Total set at 46.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Playoff History: Bills and Broncos
Buffalo Bills
All-Time Playoffs: 22-22
Wild Card Round: 9-5
Divisional Round: 7-9
AFC Championship: 4-4
Super Bowl: 0-4
Pre-1966: 2-0
Denver Broncos
All-Time Playoffs: 23-20
Wild Card Round: 2-7
Divisional Round: 10-6
AFC Championship: 8-2
Super Bowl: 3-5
Quarterback Matchup: Bills at Broncos
Bills Starting QB: Josh Allen
Last Game: 1/11 at Jacksonville – 28-35, 273yds, 1TD, 0INTs, Sacked 1 time, 11 carries for 33yds rushing
2025 Postseason: 1GP, 28-35, 273yds, 1TD, 0INTs, Sacked 1 time, 11 carries for 33yds rushing- Broncos Starting QB: Bo Nix
Last Game: 1/4 vs. Chargers – 14-23, 141yds, 0TDs, 0INTs, Sacked 4 times, 8 carries for 49yds rushing
Season: 17GP, 388-612, 3931yds, 25TDs, 11INTs, Sacked 22 times, 83 carries for 356yds rushing
Bills at Broncos: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- James Cook rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown, and the Bills rushed for 210 yards in total in last year’s Wild Card win over the Broncos
- Josh Allen threw for 272 yards and 2 TDs in the Wild Card win last season
- Bo Nix completed 13 of 22 passes for 144 yards and 1 TD in last year’s Wild Card game
- Allen completed passes to 9 different receivers last weekend
- Denver has the No. 2 rush defense in yards allowed per game (91) and is No. 3 in yards allowed per rush (3.9)
- The Broncos averaged 23.6 points per game (No. 14 in the NFL) and the lowest of the 8 remaining teams in the playoffs
- The Broncos’ percentage of 3 and outs on offense ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL (37.8%)
- Denver has won 11 one-score games this season
Bills Player Injuries
- QB Josh Allen (wrist, finger, knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- TE Dalton Kincaid (knee, calf) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- WR Curtis Samuel (elbow) is eligible to be activated off the IR and did participate in Tuesday’s practice
- S Damar Hamlin (pectoral) is eligible to be activated off the IR and did participate in Tuesday’s practice
- RB Ty Johnson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- WR Tyrell Shavers (ACL) has been declared OUT of Saturday’s game
- DE Greg Rousseau (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- DE A.J. Epenesa (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- LB Matt Milano (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- LB Terrel Bernard (calf) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- S Jordan Poyer (hamstring) has been declared OUT of Saturday’s game
- CB Maxwell Hairston (ankle) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
Broncos Player Injuries
- LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game
- TE Lucas Krull (foot) has been designated to return from the IR
- LB Drew Sanders (foot) has been designated to return from the IR
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Bills and the Broncos
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Bills on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Bills +1.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 45.5
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