For the second time in three weeks, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (13-3) take the field against Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (3-13).
This is a game with zero playoff implications for Buffalo. They will be the 2-seed in the AFC when the playoffs begin next weekend. Yes, a win for the Bills would be a franchise record 14th on the campaign, but there is nothing else to gain for Buffalo this Sunday. At the other end of the spectrum sit the Patriots. With a loss, New England will take possession of the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
How many starters either sit the game out completely or make mere cameos? Expectations are that Josh Allen will start in order to keep his consecutive starts streak intact (currently 104), but it is doubtful he stays on the field for more than a series or two.
A good sweat in Week 18 can be following player props associated with player contract incentives. Here are a handful for each of these teams:
- Bills’ LB Von Miller is one sack from a 1.5 million dollar bonus.
- Bills’ CB Taron Johnson is 1 INT from a $250,000 bonus.
- Bills’ TE Dawson Knox is 8 catches and 89 yards away from a 200K increase to his 2025 salary.
- Patriots’ LB Anfernee Jennings is 1.5 sacks from a $400,000 bonus.
- Patriots’ TE Austin Hooper is 4 receptions from a $250,000 bonus.
Let’s dive in and find an additional sweat or two in this game.
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Game details and how to watch Bills at Patriots
· Date: January 5, 2025
· Time: 1 PM ET
· Site: Gillette Stadium
· City: Foxborough, MA
· TV/Streaming: CBS
Latest Game Odds for Bills at Patriots
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
· Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (-142), New England Patriots (+120)
· Spread: Bills -3
· Total: 38
Buffalo opened as a 2.5-point favorite with the Total losing half a point from its opening number of 38.5.
Expert picks & predictions for Bills at Patriots
NBC Sports Bet Best Bets
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s Bills at Patriots’ game:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the New England Patriots getting 3 points.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 38.
Important stats, trends and insights to know ahead of Bills at Patriots on Sunday
· The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 10-6 ATS this season
· The Bills are 6-2 to the OVER in their last 8 games and 10-6 to the OVER this season
· The Patriots are 6-9-1 ATS this season
· The Patriots are 10-6 to the OVER this season
· Buffalo has won 6 of the last 7 games in this series
· Buffalo’s average margin of victory over the Patriots the last four seasons is 15.1 points.
Quarterback Matchup for Bills at Patriots
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen – 7-5 in his career against the Patriots with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Two weeks ago, Allen threw for 154 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in Buffalo’s 24-21 win in Orchard Park.
- New England Patriots: Drake Maye – the rookie is looking to become the first rookie in NFL history to complete 80% of his passes in three straight games. Two weeks ago, Maye completed 22 of 36 passes (61.1%) with 2 TDs and 1 INT in the 24-21 loss to the Bills.
Bills at Patriots Injury Report
· Buffalo LB Terrel Barnard (quad) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game.
· Buffalo CB Cam Lewis (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· Buffalo FS Taylor Rapp (neck) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England TE Hunter Henry (foot) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England LB Jahlami Tavai (groin) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England LB Anfernee Jennings (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England QB Drake Maye (hand) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England WR Ja’Lynn Polk (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England S Kyle Dgger (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England CB Brenden Schooler (abdomen) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England LB Sione Takitaki (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
· New England DE Titus Leo (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
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