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COVID is still making a major impact on the NFL as Week 16 begins, with more players added to the reserve list each day. The lines will continue to change throughout the week as more news comes in, but let’s look at some of the early line moves for Week 16 and preview some of the most interesting spreads on this week’s NFL slate, with betting splits and insights from PointsBet Sportsbook analyst Michael Korn.
| Team | Open | Current | Bet Count % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -3.5 | -3 | 66 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 56 | |||
| Cleveland Browns | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | -7 | -7.5 | 85 | 86 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 75 | 77 | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | -1 | -1 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 67 | |||
| Atlanta Falcons | -6 | -5.5 | 58 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | -2.5 | -3 | 58 | 66 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -3 | -3 | 81 | 61 |
| Minnesota Vikings | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 53 | 81 | ||
| New England Patriots | -2.5 | -2.5 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 68 | |||
| New York Jets | -2.5 | -0.5 | 76 | |
| New York Giants | ||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | -10 | -9.5 | 66 | 61 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -11 | -10 | 67 | 59 |
| Carolina Panthers | ||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | -8.5 | -10 | 86 | 95 |
| Houston Texans | ||||
| Chicago Bears | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | -6.5 | -6.5 | 51 | 51 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 81 | |||
| Kansas City Chiefs | -8 | -7.5 | 60 | |
| Denver Broncos | ||||
| Las Vegas Raiders | -1.5 | -0.5 | 63 | 61 |
| Washington Football Team | ||||
| Dallas Cowboys | -10.5 | -11 | 61 | 62 |
| Miami Dolphins | ||||
| New Orleans Saints | -3 | -3 | 58 | 78 |
The first game of the week is a Thursday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans. The 49ers moved from the opener of -3.5 down to -3, but the spread is still juiced in favor of San Francisco -3.
“Most of that handle is probably on the +3.5 so it will be interesting to see where that closes at,” Korn said. “Now that it’s down to 3 there could be some buyback and the handle could finish in favor of the Niners.”
Saturday features two cross-conference games between playoff hopeful teams, starting with the Cleveland Browns visiting Lambeau Field to play the Packers. Green Bay moved up from the opener of -7 and is now favored by 7.5 points. Early action went towards the Packers and Korn expects more money to come in on Green Bay as the week continues.
The second Saturday game includes the Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals, with a small spread of Cardinals -1 at home. The line reached a pick-em but moved back towards Arizona despite heavy action on the Colts. Korn suggested that most of that money came in on the Cardinals at a pick-em, with the public supporting Indianapolis.
“The fact that the Cardinals are still favored suggests that Arizona is the sharp side, with all that money you’d think it would move towards the Colts,” Korn said. “I don’t think it will move in the direction of the Colts since it hasn’t already.”
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor closed out his team’s primetime matchup with the Patriots last week by ripping off a 67-yard run in the fourth quarter to seal the win. Since then, Taylor’s MVP odds have skyrocketed, moving from +2800 last week all the way down to +500. Taylor’s odds were as high as +30000 in early November, but with no quarterback establishing themselves as the clear MVP favorite, Taylor has become the popular choice among public bettors. No player has received more MVP bets than Taylor at PointsBet Sportsbook, with the third-highest handle in that market.
The 1:00 slate on Sunday opens with the Detroit Lions visiting the Atlanta Falcons. Detroit earned the team’s second win of the season last week in a surprising victory over the Cardinals. Detroit attracted a higher bet count so far this week but the handle still favors Atlanta in a game with strong two-way action.
“The Falcons look like the sharp side but I think it will be teetering back and forth between 5.5 and 6,” Korn said.
Another game with the line moving back and forth is the Los Angeles Rams taking on the Minnesota Vikings. The line is currently still at Rams -3 but reached -2.5, which allowed sharp bettors to bet both sides of the key number.
“There’s been sharp action on both sides with the line move between 2.5 and 3 so that’s probably why the handle is closer with such a big bet count,” Korn said.
The New York Jets are favored for the first time all season but dropped from -2.5 to -0.5 against the Jaguars. Coach Robert Saleh will be one of many Jets missing this week as the team deals with COVID concerns.
“A lot of people bet on the Jets early and then the money poured in on the Jaguars after the COVID stuff,” Korn said. “I don’t think it will go through to Jaguars as favorites because the Jaguars shouldn’t be favored on the road but you never know with COVID.”
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The AFC North divisional matchup is an interesting line to watch as Lamar Jackson’s status for Sunday is still uncertain. Korn thinks the Bengals -3 line accounts for the uncertainty both ways, and the spread would likely shift with updates on the former MVP.
“If Lamar is out it could settle closer to a touchdown,” Korn said. “Maybe that’s one where if we move it too far sharps will come back and take Ravens, since Huntley could be better than people think.”
The most impactful divisional matchup in terms of playoff leverage is undoubtedly the game in Foxboro, where the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will battle for the AFC East division. Buffalo closes the season with games against the Jets and Falcons, so a win against the Patriots would likely earn the team a division title. Korn noted that Bills backers might be better off taking the division odds rather than the moneyline for this game.
“I think it makes more sense to take the division price and get the 15 cent difference,” Korn said. “A Bills win means they control their own destiny, and unless something terrible happens they should win out after this.”
The most interesting matchup on the 4:00 slate is the game featuring Pittsburgh and Kansas City. The Chiefs could be without Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce this week, and that’s resulting in a wide variety of lines at different sportsbooks. PointsBet opened at Chiefs -8 and moved down to 7.5 with over 80% of the money on the Steelers.
“They’re both impactful to the line and with the handle that way I could see it dropping even further if Kelce and Hill are out,” Korn said.”
If both Kelce and Hill miss Week 16, it could be time for Josh Gordon to make an impact after he caught just four passes so far this year.
The Sunday slate ends with a primetime matchup between two NFC East rivals with the Cowboys favored by double-digits over the Washington Football Team. Early support is going to Dallas as bettors seem to be concerned about Taylor Heinicke‘s status for Sunday Night Football. Heinicke missed last week’s game and Garrett Gilbert would make another start if he is out again for Week 16.
The final game of the week is on Monday night with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints. Miami is playing extremely well in recent weeks but this will be a good test to see how they match up against solid competition. New Orleans received 78% of the early handle after a shutout win over Tampa Bay last week, but the line hasn’t moved from the opener of Saints -3.
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