Well, well, well. The fantasy football season is FINALLY OVER. Thank God. It’s been too stressful every week worrying about five different teams. The NFL still has some key games in Week 18 to decide seeding and if some teams make or miss the dance. Above all else, it’s amazing to hear how Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin is recovering like a champ. The power of prayer works! Continuing to wish him well.
I’m breaking this up into a couple articles for Saturday and Sunday’s games.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
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Player Props:
Patrick Mahomes O27.5 Completions (-108)
Patrick Mahomes O2.5 Pass TD (+100)
Okay, here’s the deal. I hate everybody, and people that keep putting out the incentive list for players. Because of the clout chasing clowns, now everybody knows about Patrick Mahomes needing 430 passing yards to break Peyton Manning‘s single season record of 5,477 set in 2013. While I am rooting for him to get there to solidify my little MVP ticket on him, I’m not rushing to the window with the rest of these idiots, as this passing total keeps rising like Elvis Presley’s temperature in ‘Burning Love.’
Instead, I’m looking at taking his over completions, a market that will be much less influenced. Mahomes has only hit 28 completions in a game six times this season, but also hit 26 and 27 a couple of times. More importantly, he has hit this number in three of his last four against LV. This Raider defense also allows the sixth most completions to QBs this year.
The 2.5 passing TD total has been a cat and mouse game with Mahomes this year. He has the numbers a lot of the time to get there, but will end up handing off, or running it in himself. With at least three scores in two of his last three games against the Raiders, 15 should be in a good position to take advantage of the defense that surrenders the 10th most passing tuddies in the NFL.
Because the Chiefs have to win to lock up the top seed and a bye, KC should keep the pedal to the metal which means Mahomes will be looking to go for the kill. He also knows it’s his last chance to rack up any regular season numbers. In a butter matchup, I think he lights up Vegas. And if you want to shoot high on his yards… just because, then go for his alternate of 400+ which is in the +490 range.
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Derrick Henry O21.5 carries (-122)
It’s a win-and-in situation for the Tennessee Titans on Saturday as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have come on strong late in the season to position themselves to go to the playoffs. The 6.5 point underdog Titans will call upon the King to deliver on their behalf. Any chance this team has of winning will have to be on Derrick Henry‘s shoulders. I do want to bet on his rushing yards because it’s a great matchup and I hate not backing him, but with the Titans starting QB Josh Dobbs, we wonder just how effective this offense will be.
In order for Tennessee to pull out this huge upset, I believe the Alabama Slamma will need to tote the rock about 30 times. Henry has eclipsed this number in three of the last four games vs. Jax. Check this wild stat out. In Derrick Henry‘s career, the Titans are 22-1 when he notches at least 26 rush attempts (including postseason), with the only loss coming to the Jets in 2021. This is the formula. Feed the King.
Summary:
Patrick Mahomes O27.5 Completions (-108)
Patrick Mahomes O2.5 Pass TD (+100)
Derrick Henry O21.5 carries (-122)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.