If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for MNF, including the five detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
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Ronald Jones UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-112) — Pointsbet Sportsbook
Leonard Fournette OVER 10.5 Fantasy Points (-106) — Pointsbet Sportsbook
Jones led the Buccaneers in carries last week but he may have already been supplanted by Fournette. The former Jaguar played on nine more snaps than Jones and ran for 16 more yards on two fewer carries in their Week 7 tilt with the Raiders. That was in Fournette’s first game back from an ankle injury that held him without a snap in Week 5 and sidelined him in the prior week. His role as a runner is enough to warrant an under bet on Jones’s rushing total. Fournette’s role as a pass-catcher is what makes the over on his fantasy points prop so appealing. He was targeted seven times last week and has reportedly supplanted LeSean McCoy as the pass-catching back in Tampa Bay. Pointsbet uses PPR scoring for their fantasy points bets and Fournette could hit his prop with receiving production alone.
Daniel Jones OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
It might seem counterintuitive but Jones facing a solid pass rush is perfect for betting his rushing prop. Jones is averaging 5.3 carries for 58.3 yards when facing top-10 teams by sacks per game this year. The increase in pressure forces Jones to break the pocket more often, resulting in better rushing lines. The Buccaneers are second in the NFL with 3.6 sacks per game. Jones posted four carries for 92 yards versus the Eagles who are averaging 3.5 sacks per game.
Wayne Gallman OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110) — BetMGM Sportsbook
The Giants are going to be without their leading running back in Devonta Freeman this week leaving the starting gig in the hands of Gallman. In Week 7, Gallman recorded 10 carries to Dion Lewis‘s three runs. He operated as the lead-back while Lewis played on a quarter of New York’s offensive snaps. Any back who projects to see a vast majority of their team’s carries should be able to top 37.5 rushing yards often enough to beat the rake. For what it’s worth, Gallman is also running at 4.4 yards per carry this year. That mark is higher than all other New York backs including Saquon Barkley.
Mike Evans OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Outside of some fluky touchdown production, Evans has largely failed to live up to expectations this year. However, his saving grace has been getting to play without Chris Godwin in a number of games:
- Evans with Godwin active (per game) - 1.5 receptions, 12.8 yards
- Evans with Godwin out (per game) - 6.3 receptions, 89 yards
With Godwin active, Evans has been a touchdown-dependant No. 2 receiver. With Godwin out, Evans has been an alpha No. 1 receiver. Godwin is out with a fractured finger this week. Evans’ props reflect the middle of the two scenarios but Evans’ role is binary. This week, we’ll see alpha Evans.
Last Week: 3-2, +.4 Units
Season: 15-11, +2.9 Units
