If fretting wagering on NFL spreads and totals (historically the sharpest lines available at any book), props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every Sunday. This continued series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for the upcoming week, including the five detailed below. Any additional bets will be added and updated over the weekend. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability below.
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Sony Michel UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-112) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Fullback James Develin’s (neck) trip to injured reserve may not seem like much, but it forced the Patriots to run a season-high 42 offensive plays from 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) in Week 3 due to the sheer absence of an impactful lead blocker. (For reference, New England had only run a total of 52 plays from 11 in their first two games.) With James White expected back against the Bills, Michel’s 22.4 percent snap rate from last week should stay the same, if not dip slightly. The second-year runner’s unusable passing-game chops and inability to break even a single tackle clearly makes him the odd man out in a projected shift to three-wide sets as New England’s base offense.
Austin Ekeler OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Austin Ekeler OVER 4.5 Receptions (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s not rocket science to know a(ny) running back is in a terrific spot when squaring off against the Dolphins, but Ekeler’s opportunity has only become enhanced as the week’s progressed since backup Justin Jackson was spotted in a walking boot and promptly ruled out Friday morning. It’s possible Melvin Gordon’s sprinkled in in what could be his first game following holdout, or Troymaine Pope’s (5’9/205) involved sporadically in the second half, but most backfield touches here should get sponged by Ekeler as far as Week 4 goes. Mike Williams’ (back, out) surprising absence also locks in Ekeler’s reception count as the latter’s existing 17 percent target share and 25.6 routes run per game should only increase as one of Los Angeles’ few dependable (and available) options healthy for Sunday.
Darren Waller OVER 6.5 Receptions (+121) — Pinnacle
Offseason reports from Oakland dangled the thought of the team’s offense attacking downfield more due to the personnel they signed, but it’s clearly not been the case through three weeks as Derek Carr’s miserable 6.7 average depth of target currently ranks No. 28 among all signal-callers. Even so, Darren Waller’s 30 percent target share and 8.7 catches per game are completely sustainable since he’s getting leaned on only six yards out from the line of scrimmage. Note that the Colts will be without defensive stalwarts Darius Leonard (concussion) and S Malik Hooker (knee).
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Wayne Gallman OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+195) — Pinnacle
Pending absences from Washington’s trenches in Chase Roullier (knee, out) and Brandon Scherff (ankle, game-time decision), as well as Terry McLaurin’s (hamstring) game-time call are all pluses for Gallman’s game script outlook. With rookie Jon Hilliman activated to the 53-man roster mid-week, Gallman projects to handle the lion’s share of backfield touches against the Redskins’ No. 25 rushing defense DVOA. The +195 vig is simply great value considering his odds of punching one in is priced at a much lower +150 at BetOnline.
Marlon Mack OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards (+114) — Pinnacle
Nyheim Hines has nearly doubled up Mack in targets (10-6) on the season, but the latter’s still quietly run 25 more routes than his teammate (57-32). That type of on-field usage should result in Mack’s receiving production finally popping as he’ll likely be on the field as the team’s bell-cow as a touchdown favorite (-7) at home. T.Y. Hilton’s (quad, doubtful) potential unavailability would also be a boost for Mack on passing downs.
Last Week: 4-2, +5.4 Units
Total: 10-10, +10.1 Units
