Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs betting preview
Injuries
Texans: Phillip Gaines CB (Questionable), Keke Coutee WR (Questionable)
Chiefs: Rickey Seals-Jones TE (Questionable), Alex Brown CB (Out), Damien Williams RB (Out), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G (Out)
Referees
TBD
Betting Trend to Know
The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the Texans and Chiefs.
Against the spread pick
The Texans haven’t been able to ease into the schedule in past years. In 2018, Houston opened the season with a trip to New England. Last year, the Texans traveled to New Orleans in Week 1. And this September, the team takes on the defending Super Bowl champs in a primetime season kickoff.
The pressure in on Houston to perform, not just because of what happened against Kansas City in the playoffs, but because Bill O’Brien shipped stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins off in a surprise trade this March, for oft-injured running back David Johnson and a sampler of draft picks.
The Texans ran the ball more than most clubs in 2019 (11th), handing off on more than 42 percent of their snaps, and have a potent backfield combo in “Johnson & Johnson”, with Duke Johnson sharing carries – and catches – with the new guy.
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Houston’s best plan for Thursday is to play a little defense on offense, leaning into that running game to chew up short gains and keep the clock ticking (and keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands) while also rolling out those receiving RBs to exploit some weak coverage from Kansas City’s linebackers.
The Chiefs gave up 4.9 yards per carry to foes in 2019 and allowed running backs to total 1,039 yards receiving – second-most in the NFL. Those weaknesses will allow Houston to control the tempo and make it tough for Kansas City to cover this lofty spread.
PREDICTION: Houston +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
These teams hung 82 points on the board in that Divisional Round game and scored 55 when they clashed in Week 6 last season. This total opened at 56.5 points way back in the spring and the early money has taken the Under, moving the number to 54 points heading into Week 1.
I do expect the Texans to keep Kansas City’s defense guessing with a healthy dose of the running backs, and O’Brien doesn’t want to feed Deshaun Watson to the wolves against a dangerous Chiefs pass rush. Houston’s offense has plenty of adequate receiving options but will miss Hopkins’ hands when plays break down.
As for the Chiefs, it’s Patrick Mahomes man. He makes everyone around him better and has a slew of skill players to go to. Kansas City will score, but the opportunities to do so may be limited. Houston dominated time of possession when it beat K.C. in Arrowhead last October (39:48 TOP) and even in that postseason flop (34:35 TOP).
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Texans vs Chiefs betting card
- Houston +9.5 (-110)
- Under 54 (-110)
