Who will be the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft?
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is currently the betting favorite at whopping -300. Lawrence was a five-star recruit out of high school and has lived up to expectations through his first two years at Clemson, completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 6,711 yards and 66 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions.
However, from Marcus Marriota to Sam Darnold, Drew Lock and Tua Tagavoilia, there’s a long list of recent quarterbacks that were preseason favorites to go first overall that failed to cash out for bettors. With so much that could change between now and next April, betting on Lawrence might not be anywhere as much of a sure thing as the odds board seems to suggest.
Next on the 2021 NFL Draft odds is Ohio State’s Justin Fields, another five-star recruit QB who is coming off a dominant sophomore season. Just behind Fields is Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell who won the Outland Trophy as college football’s top lineman last season despite being just 19 years old. After Sewell there’s a big drop off to the rest of the field.
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Odds to go first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft
| Player | Position | 2021 NFL Draft Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | -300 | |
| Justin Fields | +300 | |
| Penei Sewell | +400 | |
| D’Eriq King | +1,800 | |
| Micah Parsons | +2,500 | |
| Alex Leatherwood | +3,300 | |
| Jamie Newman | +3,300 | |
| Gregory Rousseau | +3,300 | |
| Ja’Marr Chase | +5,000 | |
| DeVonta Smith | +5,000 | |
| Jaylen Waddle | +5,000 | |
| Travis Etienne | +5,000 | |
| Patrick Surtain III | +5,000 | |
| Shaun Wade | +5,000 | |
| Chuba Hubbard | +6,600 | |
| Sam Cosmi | +6,600 | |
| Kellen Mond | +8,000 | |
| Najee Harris | +8,000 |
Odds courtesy of PointsBet
NFL Draft Betting trends
• Each of the last three first-overall selections have been quarterback transfers that won the Heisman Trophy. If 2020 transfers Jamie Newman, D’Eriq King and Jake Bentley are in the Heisman discussion this may be a trend to keep a close eye on.
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field and while most first overall selections have played QB, quarterback hunters have been in high demand as well. Three of the last 15 No. 1 overall picks were pass rushers. The top pass-rush specialist on the odds board is Miami’s Gregory Rousseau who racked up 15.5 sacks as a redshirt freshman in 2018.
• No running back has gone first overall since 1995, yet three running backs (Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard and Najee Harris) are currently in the top 18 on the odds board.
• No linebacker has gone first overall since Aundray Bruce in 1988. The defensive player with the best odds of going first overall in 2020 is Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
| Year | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | QB |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | QB |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett | DE |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | QB |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | QB |
| 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE |
| 2013 | Eric Fisher | OT |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | QB |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | QB |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | QB |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | QB |
| 2008 | Jake Long | OT |
| 2007 | JaMarcus Russell | QB |
| 2006 | Mario Williams | DE |
How to bet on the 2021 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon the previous year’s draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft odds
The odds to go first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
- Tua Tagovailoa +250
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Tua last April, you would have won $250 if the Alabama QB had gone first overall in 2020. When you get closer to the draft and there is a general consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
- Joe Burrow -2,500
This means that a month before the 2020 NFL Draft, you had to bet $2,500 to win $100 on Joe Burrow being taken first overall.
Where can I bet on the 2021 NFL Draft?
Most online books and casinos offer bets on the NFL Draft. Betting on the first available pick is usually the first wager offered, with odds coming out as soon as the previous year’s draft takes place. Closer to the draft however, expect many more prop bets to come out as the draft board becomes more clear.
