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Lamar Jackson Over 850.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
So, let me get this right. Lamar Jackson rushes for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, the NFL adds an extra game, and his line opens over 100 yards lower than last season’s prop line?
Well, okay.
From the standpoint of Jackson’s longevity, I can see why the line lowered. I could also see why some may favor the Under here, but if the Ravens want to contend, that means Jackson needs to make plays with his legs.
In NFL history, only three times has a quarterback ran the ball at least 147 times -- all three belong to Jackson.
In NFL history, only three times has a quarterback ran for 1,000 yards in a season -- Jackson owns two of those three in back-to-back seasons.
It is safe to say Jackson is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in NFL history as he enters his fourth season -- I mean, the dude ranks 12th all-time in quarterback rushing yards already.
If Jackson rushes for 365 more yards than Packers’ Aaron Rodgers, Jackson will be 10th all-time in rushing yards.
Jackson is 24-years-old, Rodgers is 37.
If Jackson rushes for 850 yards this season, he will be sixth all-time jumping Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Frank Tarkenton and John Elway. Jackson is truly a generational talent.
Here are Jackson’s stats from the past three seasons, with 2020, the most recent year, at the top (1,005 rushing yards). Jackson averages 968.6 rushing yards per season and 160.6 rushing attempts through his three-year career.
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For a more detailed look at his rushing numbers from 2020, playerprofiler.com puts it into a good perspective as he ranked top four in all major rushing categories for quarterbacks. He ranked top two in every category during 2019.
For 2021, how will the Ravens’ offense be different and scheduling-wise -- what should we expect for the former NFL MVP?
For the schedule, Baltimore has the 11th-easiest strength of schedule for running backs, which in this case includes Jackson for the prop.
Baltimore let Mark Ingram walk as it is time for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to take control. The Ravens Offense was much more dynamic with Dobbins and Edwards is a nice change of pace back with an ability to find the end zone.
After trimming some fat from the backfield, the Ravens run game could be more dynamic with Jackson, Dobbins and Edwards. Baltimore signed Sammy Watkins and drafted Rashod Bateman to boost the passing attack.
While Jackson has more weapons this season, that does not necessarily mean he will pass more often or be better. Per playerprofiler.com, Jackson’s accuracy rating (28th), catchable pass rate (27th) and deep-ball completion percentage (23rd) all stood out to me.
I by no means am a Jackson passing hater, I think he is better than what most people give him credit for, but there are still a lot of strides to be made with his arm. He’s not as bad as Tua Tagovailoa when it comes to passing.
Jackson, of course, can throw one of the deepest balls in the NFL, but accuracy, especially when under pressure, has been an issue.
His air yards per attempt (8.6) were positive because he had the No. 1 game script in the NFL (+5.42), thanks to big leads and the best rushing attack. Baltimore broke the league’s single-season rushing record from 1973, held by New England.
Baltimore finished last season with 3,296 rushing yards, 191.9 per game, beating New England’s 3,165-mark. If the Ravens have another repeat year on the ground, I expect Jackson to post another 1,000-yard season or close to it.
The Ravens also added Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva to the right side of the offensive line -- giving them arguably the best overall offensive line in the NFL.
Jackson needs to average 50 rushing yards per game in a 17-game schedule to record 851 rushing yards. In 2020, Jackson posited 45 or more rushing yards in 13 out of 15 games.
In the last two seasons, Jackson was granted Week 17 off, so even at 16-games, he needs 53.1 yards per game -- still very attainable.
Jackson has rushed for at least 45 yards in 32 of the previous 37 regular-season games -- historic.
Ride that in 2021 as the Ravens’ quarterback remains the most elusive and dangerous player in the game.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 850.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
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