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NFL MVP: Josh Allen +1100
Since entering the league in 2018, Josh Allen has improved drastically every season. If he takes another next step in his progression this season, he will be in the MVP conversation for the second consecutive year.
First off, this is a quarterbacks award and that is the only way to play this market. A quarterback has won NFL MVP 13 of the last 14 seasons with Adrian Peterson in 2012 as the only non-QB to win, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Last season, Allen had four MVP votes for 8% of the votes, finishing second behind Aaron Rodgers (88%). Allen beat out Patrick Mahomes, who finished third with two votes for 4%.
Allen also received three Offensive Player of the Year votes, tying Travis Kelce for 6% of the votes and fourth-place.
The Buffalo Bills star quarterback entered 2021 with the third best odds to win MVP this season but jumped Tom Brady (+1200) for a second place over the past week until Rodgers announced he is playing.
Here is the updated look at the MVP odds with the latest Rodgers-Packers news, per PointsBet.
Rodgers’ odds shot to +1000, giving Allen the third-best odds yet again. All three trail Mahomes at +450, who is the favorite.
Allen’s MVP odds opened at +1100 and moved to +1200, then +1300 before reversing back down to +1100, per NBC’s future model. I expect his odds to lower throughout the season but by the time Week 1 begins, I will say +700 or lower.
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On first down, he completed 62% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt and a 108.9 QBR. The NFL average is 54%, 7.6 yards per attempt and a 96.0 QBR. Looking over second and third down, more of the same from MVP runner-up.
Looking over Allen’s three years of improvement, if 2020 is the new normal, we are in store for something special.
Allen threw for 300-plus yards in 8-of-16 games last season and ran for 28 or more yards in eight. Allen scored eight touchdowns on the ground last season compared to 37 through the air.
He scored three or more combined touchdowns in 8-of-16 contests and two-plus touchdowns in 14-of-16. Over his 44-game career, Allen scored 93 total regular-season touchdowns (67 passing, 25 rushing, 1 receiving), averaging 2.11 scores per game.
The touchdown machine set career-highs in every major category last season, leading the Bills to a 13-3 record in Tom Brady’s first season out of the AFC East.
Last season, Allen was and still is the best quarterback in the division -- and it is not even close.
There are a few key factors that are worth noting and watching this season for Allen’s development into a season-to-season MVP candidate.
Allen was so elusive last season that with the 19th ranked protection rate (84%), he somehow had the third-longest time to throw average (3.04), per PlayerProfiler and the NFL’s NextGenStats.
How the line plays this season will be crucial to Allen’s development. Allen posted a 78.6% clean pocket completion percentage, good enough for fourth in the league. The Bills drafted multiple lineman, signed a few and added Emmanuel Sanders and Matt Breida as new toys for Allen via free agency.
Allen’s legs will play a pivotal role in his MVP chase. Allen’s rushing yards have declined each season as his passing yards increased, but he has remained active in finding the endzone.
He scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in every season since entering the league.
Allen’s worst rushing season came last year, and he ended with 421 rushing yards and eight scores on the ground.
However, among quarterbacks, Allen ranked top seven in carries (102), carries per game (6.4), red zone carries (25), rushing yards (421) and rushing touchdowns (8), per PlayerProfiler.
The rushing touchdowns will have to continue this season in order for an MVP to return to Buffalo.
With Zack Moss and Devin Singletary in the backfield, it’s not crazy to argue Allen is still the biggest rushing threat to opposing defenses. Allen could record his first double-digit touchdown season on the ground and if he does, he should have a legitimate chance at MVP.
For the MVP to land in Buffalo, that would be the first time since Thurman Thomas won in 1991 -- 20 years to the season.
That would be remarkable, but as last year showed us, not far out from reality. This is a quarterback’s award, so I will roll with one of the most entertaining and best dual-threat signal-callers in the game in Josh Allen.
Pick: Josh Allen to win MVP (0.5u)
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