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GIANTS AT CHIEFS (-10): O/U 52.0
Monday Night Football between the New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs!
Here are some trends and breakdowns from NBC’s Edge Finder to get you started.
New York is injury-riddled entering this matchup, which is worth watching against Kansas City in Arrowhead. New York plays the role dog well, going 11-2 ATS in the last 13 (84.6%).
A Giants’ faithful ATS road backer would be up $800 for the $100 1 unit bettor during that span.
The Giants are 8-3 ATS on the road in 2020 and 2021 (72.3%).
This season they are 2-1 with a 24-point loss to Dallas as +7 dogs, per NBC’s Edge Finder. They covered against Washington and New Orleans.
The Chiefs lost last week, which means they are a great bet to win or cover the next game. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the quarterback Kansas City is 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 8-3 on the ML (72.7%) following a loss.
Kansas City is 2-1 on the ML and ATS this season following a loss. Despite that, our model ranks New York as excellent value and worth a bet at +10 in Arrowhead.
That +10 scares me, so I will pass on this game spread, but grab Kansas City at a decent price if they fall behind, which I doubt happens. If the spread reached +13 or +14, I would be in on New York.
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DANIEL JONES O/U 241.5 PASSING YARDS VS. CHIEFS
Here is how we will finish off our week. Danny Dimes on Monday Night Football.
I have joked about him before. Danny Pennies. Danny Nickels. We bet his first interception of the season against the Saints, and it hit. It was all fun and games.
Let’s get serious this time.
Daniel Jones is quietly having a “decent” season minus the three-interception game against the Rams. He tossed at least one touchdown in four of his six healthy games and tossed 203 or more yards in five games.
The target number needed here is 242 passing yards. Jones has thrown 242 yards or more in five out of seven games (71.4%).
Here is a look at Jones’ hit rates from this season, per NBC’s player prop model.
PointsBet has him at 243.5, so it is showing one Under as he finished with 242 two weeks ago. I would still play Over 243.5.
Now let’s look at how the Chiefs have done versus quarterbacks. Six out of seven starting quarterbacks have thrown for 239 or more passing yards against the Chiefs.
Only Taylor Heinicke (182) and Lamar Jackson (239) went Under 243.5 passing yards against Kansas City this season.
Overall, the Chiefs allow the third-most yards per pass attempt (8.6), the fifth-most passing yards (1,930) and the seventh-highest quarterback rate (104.0).
Jones ranks ninth in air yards (2,034) and 13th in air yards per pass attempt (8.4). Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are ruled out, and that will force Jones to pass more than he wants, making this a great bet for the Over passing yards.
Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are next in line with questionable tags, and if they are a go, Jones will be in good shape on Monday Night to hit his Over.
I grabbed the Over 241.5 passing yards at -120 odds and would play this up to 249.5 passing yards.
Pick: Daniel Jones Over 241.5 Passing Yards (1u)
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