Monitoring the divisional markets is one of my favorite things to do early in the NFL season.
Oddsmakers set divisional odds long before anybody takes a snap and every team gets a price to win their division. Most of the time, there’s a heavy bias toward a team’s performance from the year before. Past performance is almost more important than players or coordinators leaving to join new teams.
Take the Minnesota Vikings for example. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left to become the head coach of the Browns. Then Minnesota shipped speedy deep threat Stefon Diggs to Buffalo. But Minnesota won 10 games last season, so they entered this season as co-favorites with the Packers to win the NFC North at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Right now, Minnesota is an absolute mess and it’s likely they’ll lose 10 games. Maybe more.
So here we stand six games into the regular season. Seven of the eight divisions are still pretty much up for grabs. Kansas City is the only team (-1000 to win the AFC West) that has an insanely high price. Nobody really wants to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs either.
Two teams stand out to me as serious contenders. Each team has a top five defense and a quarterback and head coach that know how to win. I circled two strong underdogs – the Indianapolis Colts (+230) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+160).[[ad:athena]]
The Colts are down their divisional page simply because of the impressive 5-and-0 start by the Titans. Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry have been sensational so far this season, but a tougher path is certainly ahead on their schedule. Tennessee has Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati, Chicago, Indianapolis, at Baltimore and at Indianapolis for their next six games. Sheesh. There’s two losses in that stretch if not three. The Titans also just lost left tackle Taylor Lewan for the season with a torn ACL.
I believe in Indianapolis because I believe in Frank Reich. His offensive schematics led the Eagles to a Super Bowl title in the 2017 season. Then, Reich led the Colts to 10 wins the following season with his superb play calling and feel for making the right in-game decisions. Reich also somehow seven won games in 2019 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback after Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement.
And while Philip Rivers doesn’t have the arm strength he once possessed, he’s still got the accuracy and intangibles for Indianapolis to win the AFC South. That’s a pretty decent bet at +230, a much better one than laying -304 on the Titans to finish the job.
Then there’s the Steelers. Pittsburgh was around +350 or +375 to win the AFC North before the season. But that’s because Ben Roethlisberger missed 14 games after having elbow surgery and the Ravens finished 14-and-2. Both of those things had a direct reflection on Baltimore being a -175 divisional favorite in the summer.
All Roethlisberger has done this year is throw 11 touchdowns and one interception for an undefeated 5-and-0 Steelers squad that’s currently in first place. And Mike Tomlin continues to be a defensive guru with a mean unit that ranks top five in almost every statistical category. Their schedule isn’t too bad the rest of the way either. After this weekend’s tilt in Tennessee, Pittsburgh faces Baltimore twice (they’ll split like they almost always do) and they’ve got a tough one in Buffalo in mid-December.
PointsBet has the Steelers at +160 right now to win the AFC North. Even if they finish 7-and-4 down the stretch, that’s 12 wins. If the Ravens win 13, you tip your cap.
The whole exercise with any futures market is picking the right team at the price. If the Titans begin to slide because of injuries, regression and a tougher schedule, +230 on the Colts won’t be around next month. And if Pittsburgh rolls the Ravens in two weeks to improve to 7-and-0, forget about +160.
Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are my barking divisional dogs. Who are yours?
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