SPREAD TO BET NOW: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1)
If you missed out on Kansas City at pick’em, where it opened at select books, you absolutely have to grab the Chiefs at -1 – should K.C. be your side of choice for this championship game in Miami.
Kansas City snuffed out the Cinderella Titans in the AFC Championship Game with an impressive defensive effort against a Tennessee team that rolled over New England and Baltimore in the previous two rounds.
The Chiefs sold out when it came to stopping the run, forcing the Titans out of their comfort zone of the past three weeks and putting the game on Ryan Tannehill’s shoulders. They limited RB Derrick Henry to 69 total yards on the ground and set their sights on another dominant ground game in San Francisco.
If you’re buying into K.C. as the next Super Bowl champ, make sure you at least get down on Chiefs -1 and avoid any nasty hooks. Some books have already climbed to Kansas City -1.5 while others appear to be headed in that direction, with the vig on Chiefs -1 asking -114. That’s not saying this spread doesn’t come back down between now and then, but K.C. backers will want to guarantee a bet at -1.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 54.5 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The lookahead total for Super Bowl LIV was as low as 51.5 points and most shops opened their “official” Super Bowl Over/Under odds at 53.5 after the Chiefs erupted for 35 points against the Titans in the AFC title game and the Niners hung 37 on the Packers in the NFC Championship.
Depending on the book, the line dipped as low as 53 points but has since shot up with money coming in on the Over, with some markets already at 54.5 points. Both teams have leaned toward the Over in recent games, with the 49ers topping the total in the NFC title game and posting a 4-1-1 O/U mark in their last six. However, three of those Over winners came with the defense thinned by injuries late in the schedule.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, went Over in the AFC Championship, Over in the Divisional Round – thanks in part to slow starts and big comebacks. Kansas City is 3-0 O/U in its last three games overall, but stayed below the number in five straight contests between Weeks 11 and 16.
The public loves to bet the Over in big games and there’s no game bigger than Super Bowl. That makes the total markets an instant “Joes versus Pros” showdown, with smart money moving the total down in three of the past four Big Games. Last year’s Super Bowl LIII total opened at 58 points, with an expected shootout between the Patriots and Rams, but was trimmed as low as 55.5 before kickoff and finished with just 16 total points on the board. YAWN!
If you like the Under for February 2, wait it out and see if you can grab Under 54 or maybe even 54.5. But don’t wait too long, because sharp money could be coming back on the Under as well, pushing it back to the original post.
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SUPER BOWL MVP BET TO MAKE NOW: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS RB Raheem Mostert 8/1
This Super Bowl matchups is a bit different from past seasons. Usually, each team’s respective quarterbacks are right next to each other at comparable prices on the MVP odds board. But, while Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is an EVEN money favorite to win Most Valuable Player his counterpart, 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, is coming in at 7/2.
Jimmy G hasn’t exactly been the driving force for the Niners’ Super Bowl run nor has he really lit the league on fire during the 2019-20 season. A run-heavy playbook has been the star of the show and no running back has shone brighter in recent games than Raheem Mostert. He had 220 yards rushing and four scores in the NFC title game but has also scored a TD in seven of the team’s last eight games (12 in total).
Mostert will no doubt draw big money to win MVP at 8/1 and this price is on the way down. On the flip side of this, and a great MVP play to make later if you like the 49ers, wait and see how high Garoppolo gets before Super Bowl Sunday. Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 29 times, including seven of the last 10 Big Games.
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