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NFL Week 1 Betting: Trends, Favorites, Dogs, Props and More

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

PointsBet opened Week 1 betting odds in the NFL and there are more than a few value spots to start the season. Here is one trend to beware of and two teams worth backing ATS in Week 1 based on trends and recent history.

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Super Bowl Hangover: Chiefs (-6) vs. Browns

What a great matchup for Week 1. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs versus Baker Mayfield and the Browns. In any other week, the Chiefs at home versus the Browns are worth backing, but I am fading here.

In Week 1, after a Super Bowl loss, this might be worth staying away from or taking/teasing the Browns.

In the last 21 seasons, the team that lost the Super Bowl has covered in Week 1 only four times. Four!

Kansas City won 14 games last season, but only by seven or more points in six games. The Chiefs won by seven or more points in six of the first seven wins to start the season, but zero the rest of the year.

The only time the Chiefs won by more than a touchdown after Week 8 was against the Bills in the AFC Championship.

The Chiefs rushing defense finished ranked 21st with 122.1 yards per game allowed, but tied-fifth overall in interceptions with 16. An interesting combo that screams run the ball if you are Cleveland.

If the Browns stick to the ground game and do it successfully, resulting in longer possessions and keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands, they are better positioned to cover.

Nick Chubb recorded 1,067 rushing yards in 12 games a year after finishing second in the league with 1,494 in 2019. Kareem Hunt was a nice addition, adding 841 rushing yards and 303 receiving yards for 11 total touchdowns in 2020 after working his way into the locker room in 2019.

Look for Hunt to have an impactful game or score a touchdown versus his former team (again). Chubb recorded at least eight rushing touchdowns in all three seasons and recorded a career-high 12 touchdowns in a career-low 12 games.

On the other side of the ball, the addition of Jadeveon Clowney heightens the chances for Cleveland to not only make a deep run, but cover the spread here. The Browns Defense will have plenty of playmakers, including my Defensive MVP pick in Myles Garrett. I am excited to see what these two can do versus Mahomes.

Either back the Browns on the +6, tease them to +10 or higher in this spot or leave this game alone as the Chiefs could be the next team to fall in line with this trend.

Pick: Browns +6 or Tease up to +13

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Hammer Harbaugh: Ravens (-4.5) vs. Raiders

The Baltimore Ravens open the season on the road visiting Las Vegas for the first Monday Night Football matchup of the season with the Raiders.

The Ravens open as -4.5 point favorites and interestingly enough, Baltimore is 10-3 ATS and SU in Week 1 games under John Harbaugh with five straight covers.

In the Ravens’ last five opening games, they have dominated. Baltimore has allowed 26 total points for 5.2 per game. Yes, you read that right. The Ravens have outscored their opponents 177-26.

Last five Week 1 Performances for Baltimore:

2020: Baltimore 38 - Cleveland 6

2019: Baltimore 59 - Miami 10

2018: Baltimore 47 - Buffalo 3

2017: Baltimore 20 - Cincinnati 0

2016: Baltimore 13 - Buffalo 7

John Harbaugh won his first five season-openers before losing three straight, then winning five straight - leading us to this season. Hard to believe he has been the head coach for 13 years, but here we are for another run at a Super Bowl.

The last time these two teams met was 11/25/2018 and the Ravens won 34-17 behind Jackson’s 249 total yards and two touchdowns. That was the first and only time Jon Gruden has coached against Lamar Jackson, so Week 1 will be quite the test going off preseason and last season’s film.

Baltimore won 10 of its 11 games last season by five or more points and nine by double-digits. The largest reason why Baltimore dominated was its ground game. The Ravens Offense led the league in rushing yards per game (191.9) and finished seventh in points per game (29.3).

The Raiders’ defense was downright bad last season and stopping the Ravens ground game will be a challenging task. Las Vegas’ defense finished 24th with 125.8 rushing yards allowed to opponents and 30th in points per game permitted with 29.9 per game.

Only the Lions (32.4) and Jaguars (30.8) allowed more points per game. The Raiders also opponents to combine for 24 rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most. Look for the Ravens to put up points and if you can get their team total around 27.5 or lower, I would bet that as well.

Baltimore will be a popular bet in Week 1. You may not get a better price than now on the Ravens (-4.5). I expect Baltimore to be -6 favorites or higher by kickoff of Monday Night Football.

Pick: Ravens -4.5 up to -6

The Streak is Alive: Vikings (-3) vs. Bengals

The Minnesota Vikings opened as -3 point favorites on the road at the Cincinnati Bengals. This is now the seventh straight season the Vikings are favored entering Week 1 -- the longest active streak in the league.

The Vikings covered in four straight before losing to the Packers at home last season. It will be Kirk Cousins versus Joe Burrow, presumably, making for an entertaining Week 1 matchup.

Here is how Minnesota has fared in the last seven Week 1 games. They have won five of the seven outings and scored 24 or more in six of seven.

Vikings Last Seven Week 1 Games:

2020: Green Bay 43 - Minnesota 34

2019: Minnesota 28 - Atlanta 12

2018: Minnesota 24 - San Francisco 16

2017: Minnesota 29 - New Orleans 19

2016: Minnesota 25 - Tennessee 16

2015: San Fransico 20 - Minnesota 3

2014: Minnesota 34 - St. Louis (LA) 6

Minnesota has repeatedly been profitable in this spot and even on the road, they deserve to be the favorites against Cincy.

Both the Bengals and Vikings were two of the worst rushing defenses in the league, ranking 27th or worse in rushing yards allowed. Both defenses also surrendered 30 or more passing touchdowns, finishing 24th or worse overall.

It will be Kirk Cousins plus his big three of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen versus Joe Burrow and his big three of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Cousins has a 3-7-1 record in September since joining the Vikings, while Burrow started 0-2-1 last season.

Based on both defenses last year, I have more confidence that Cook can have his way against this Bengals front seven. Cook finished with the second-most rushing yards (1,557), rushing touchdowns (16) and first downs (91). Only Derrick Henry had more in all three categories.

Back the Vikings in Burrow’s first game back. If this were another Week, like Week 6 for example, I would reconsider this. However, Minnesota should have enough firepower to outscore Cincy and just enough pass rush to pester Burrow with the long-awaited return of Danielle Hunter, who is coming off a neck injury that cost him all of 2020.

To open the season, expecting Burrow to have 40 pass attempts and Cincy to play enough defense to stop Cousins and company in Week 1 is asking for too much.

I will back the Vikings here in Week 1 as they have been profitable in this spot.

Pick: Vikings -3

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