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Colts at Broncos (-3.5): O/U 43.5
We could be in for another primetime snoozer on Thursday Night Football.
This season, primetime games are 9-4 to the Under (69.2%, +4.18 units).
On Thursday Night Football, the Under is 3-1 (75%, +1.73 units) this season with the Steelers and Browns game barely going Over.
Dating back to the start of 2021, the Under is 14-6 (70%, +6.43 units) on Thursday Night Football and is currently on a 14-4 run in the past 18 TNF games (77.7%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Looking over this matchup, if you haven’t caught my drift so far, I like the Under 43.5.
The Under hit in nine-straight games for the Colts, dating back to last season, and five-straight on the road.
During that nine-game span, the Colts average 18.6 points per game and permit 18.5 points per game for 37.1 combined points per game.
In the five-straight road Unders, Indy averages 16.8 points per game and allows 17.2 points per game for a combined 34.0 points per game.
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To start 2022, Denver hit the Under in two-straight at home versus the Texans (16-9 win) and 49ers (11-10 win). Those two totals closed at 45 and 45.5.
Since the start of 2021, Denver is 8-3 to the Under at home (72.7%). In the past 11 home games, the Broncos average 19.5 points per game and allow 16.5 points per game for 36.0 combined points per game.
Only four road teams scored more than 16 points versus the Broncos since 2021 and two were division opponents (Raiders, Chiefs) with the other squads quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts -- nothing like Matt Ryan.
This game will also take place outdoors, which is a factor for Ryan. He is used to playing in a dome with Atlanta and now Indy. Ryan is 60-32 on the ML (65.2%) playing in a dome and 43-40 playing outdoors (51.8%), a substantial difference, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Overall, playing anywhere, Denver is 15-6 to the Under (71.4%) since 2021 and 11-4 to the Under in the past 15 (73.3%).
Denver is the most penalized team in the NFL (37) and ranks second in false starts (8) and offensive holding calls (6) through four games.
The Broncos offense has the seventh-lowest completion percentage (61.1%), four fumbles (2nd-most) and scored 20-plus points for the first time all season -- but it was versus the 0-3 Raiders.
The Under is 8-1 in the last nine games (88.9%) for Denver outside of the AFC West and 8-2 to the Under in the past 10 (80%) at home versus non-AFC West squads. The Under has hit in four-straight for the Colts outside of AFC South opponents.
The Broncos will not have running back Javonte Williams for this game, which is a problem. Denver ranks 24th in first downs by rushing attempts (20) and the Broncos are one of five teams in the league without a 20-yard rush.
The Colts rank 6th in fewest yards allowed per play (4.8) and 11th in yards per completion (9.8), so I do not like Denver’s offense versus the Indy defense, even if Shaquille Leonard is out.
Russell Wilson is banged up and experiencing a right shoulder issue (throwing arm), while he will play, it is worth noting on a short week. Wilson is 7-4 to the Under on TNF (63.4%) and 6-2 to the Under in the past eight (75%).
Jonathan Taylor‘s status is unknown, but he in a light boot, whether he does or does not play, the Under is still a strong bet with all the trends, both teams struggling to score and facing key injuries on a short week.
I played the Under 43.5 at -110 odds and would play this down to 43.0.
Pick: Under 43.5 (1u)
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