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49ers (-3) at Titans: O/U 44.0
It’s a clash of one of the hottest teams in the NFL and one of the colder squads as they meet in Nashville, TN.
The 49ers are 6-2 ATS and on the ML in the past eight games and scored 23-plus points in seven of those eight contests, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
San Fran is one of the hottest teams in the NFL this season, including a 3-1 ATS mark in the past four road games and a 5-2 ML mark overall away from home.
In the past five games, Tennessee is 1-4 ATS, only covering against Jacksonville. Over the previous four contests, the Titans are 1-3 on the ML, losing to the Texans, Steelers and Patriots.
Without A.J. Brown (last played 11/21), the Titans have struggled to score 20 or fewer points and went 1-2 during his absence.
With Brown in the lineup this season, Tennessee is 7-3 ATS, 8-2 on the ML and 5-5 to the O/U.
Brown is expected to return off IR for this matchup and his presence would desperately help a passing attack that hit 191 or fewer yards in the previous three games.
The last time Ryan Tannehill threw for 200-plus yards was against the Texans, and Brown played in that outing. The 49ers’ weakness has been the outside passing attack, so a healthy Brown is a major weapon in this matchup for the Titans.
For San Francisco, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle give Jimmy Garoppolo the weapons needed for another 23-point performance. The rushing attack is the best quality of the 49ers’ team, but without Elijah Mitchell, the door is open for the passing attack.
The Titans will be without offensive lineman Taylor Lewan (back) and G Rodger Saffold (COVID-19), which is not ideal against the 49ers’ front seven. Tennessee is still without Derrick Henry, so expect plenty of passes with Brown back.
I like the Over 44 (-115) in a game where both teams can win this contest. With Brown expected back in the lineup for the Titans and Mitchell out for the 49ers, this sets up a pass-heavy game script from either squad.
I lean SF on the -3 in this matchup but like the Over as the best bet. I would play the Over to 45.0.
Pick: Over 44.0 (1u)
