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Colts at Bills (-7): O/U 49.5
The Bills have played four of the last five games on the road, while the Colts were at home in four of the past five. They flip the script and that will benefit the Bills in this spot.
I will point out before getting started, the Colts have beat the Texans, 49ers, Jets and Jaguars during their 4-1 stretch.
Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS (85.7%) in the last eight home games and 7-1 on the ML (87.5%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
They technically pushed against the Dolphins, but if you got the -14 prior to kickoff like most people, then you cashed and that makes them 7-1 ATS with Week 1 as the only loss (Steelers). They won all seven games by 10 or more points.
As a home favorite, Buffalo is 7-2-1 ATS (70%) and 9-1 on the ML (90%) over the last 10.
The Colts are 3-1 ATS (75%) on the road this season with covers against the 49ers, Dolphins and Ravens. The Colts beat the 49ers and Dolphins but lost to the Ravens by six -- the spread was Baltimore -7.
When we look at the Colts’ last 10 opponents on the road, they covered seven times, but this appears to be the best team, if not second-best, that they have faced over that span.
Who would you put above them besides Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers or Baker Mayfield and the Browns of last year? I will take Allen and this Bills team against 90% of those listed teams.
Next week, the Bills have a TNF game on the road with the Saints, so a home win is needed versus the Colts in a pivotal AFC game.
Buffalo averages 31.1 points per game (2nd) and 31.2 at home (3rd) this season, so expect fireworks against a banged-up defense.
On the Colts’ injury report, Darius Leonard (ankle/hand), DeForest Buckner (abdomen/throat/back), Xavier Rhodes (calf), Eric Fisher (back), Quinton Nelson (ankle), Jack Doyle (knee) all missed Wednesday and are limited or questionable entering Sunday -- among others.
Lay the points with the Bills and expect Josh Allen to have an MVP type of performance in front of Bills Mafia.
I would play -7.5 for 1 unit.
Pick: Bills -7 (1.5u)
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Lions at Browns (-12): O/U 43.5
Tim Boyle will start the Detroit Lions, and the Browns spread ballooned to -12 and will likely to keep going.
Detroit has a slew of injuries. Jared Goff is out (oblique), OLB Trey Flowers (knee) is out, but tackles Taylor Decker (elbow) and Matt Nelson (ankle) are questionable, plus they added two kickers to the practice squad.
Ryan Santoso missed a game-winner in OT last week. That would have secured a win for Detroit, the first of the season. The Lions are in flux.
Cleveland, on the other hand, can take advantage of a backup quarterback and potentially backup tackle(s). If you rode Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year at +600 odds with me, let’s hope this is another multi-sack outing.
The weather is another concern for Detroit. They will play in Cleveland, where it is expected to rain throughout the game. Per NFLweather.com, there is a 70% or higher chance of rain from kickoff to 4 PM.
Boyle will have a challenging task of making something happen in the rain away from home. He just came back to practice last week and has not played in a game since August (preseason).
Detroit is experimenting with wideouts Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds. Boyle played with a few other Lions’ receivers in the preseason, none of which are active for this game.
His rapport with the mentioned three receivers started in practice last week (or this week in Reynold’s case).
Boyle has never started a game in the NFL, so Sunday will be his first. Myles Garrett says welcome to the NFL.
Play the Lions Team Total down to Under 14.5.
Pick: Lions Team Total Under 15.5 (1u)
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Steelers at Chargers (-5.5): O/U 47.0
All of this depends on the status of Ben Roethlisberger.
If Ben is IN, this is a NO-bet and we revisit the spread later.
However, maybe Mason Rudolph can be what the Steelers need to cover a spread on SNF, but I doubt it.
In the last nine SNF games, Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS and 1-10 ATS (9%) in the past 11, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Over Mike Tomlin‘s career, he is 16-20-1 ATS on SNF. Here is a snippet of crazy stretch of all green, then nothing but red.
As the underdog on SNF, Pittsburgh is 6-6-1 ATS (50%), a loser in three straight.
In all three cases, they were the road team. The Steelers are 5-5 ATS (50%) as a road dog on SNF, failing to score 20 points eight times (80%). The Team Total of 20.5 -- maybe worth a bet.
With Mason Rudolph at the helm, the 1H Under has been gold on the road. The Steelers have started Rudolph six times away from Pittsburgh and the 1H score hit 20 points or fewer all six times. The 1H Under is 23.5.
All six games combined to go Under 47 points, which is the O/U for this game.
The Under is 3-0 in Steelers’ road games this season, all hitting 44 or fewer points.
The Under is 8-5 in Justin Herbert‘s 13 career home starts (61.5%) and 3-2 this season (66.7%).
Both teams have defenses that can slow the other offense, but both units got weaker after COVID put Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Bosa on the COVID list.
Either way, the Steelers are a fade anytime Mason Rudolph is on the field, especially when he is the road quarterback. Mike Tomlin on primetime is always worth a fade ATS, coming from a Steelers fan.
In addition to playing the Chargers -5.5, we will play the 1H Under 23.5 PENDING BIG BEN’s NEWS.
I would play them to -6 and the 1H to Under 20.5 PENDING BIG BEN’s NEWS.
Pick: Chargers -5.5 (1u), Steelers-Chargers 1H Under 23.5 (1u)
Dalvin Cook Anytime TD vs. Packers
This is -150 or worse everywhere else except a few sites. Well, it will be available -150 or worse everywhere after I tweet this article.
Dalvin Cook has scored eight, yes, eight touchdowns in his last four games against the Packers, including at least one score in four straight games, per statmuse.
Cook has six rushing touchdowns in the last three meetings and two receiving touchdowns in four. They have only met five times in his young career.
Cook has touched the ball 20 or more times in his last four games entering this meeting with Green Bay. He has 17 or more rushing attempts in all four games and two or more receptions in three of the four games.
The Vikings will need a heavy dosage of Cook and our model expects it. NBC’s player prop model projects Cook to record 86 rushing yards and total 103 with receiving included.
Outside of Davante Adams, the two running backs, AJ Dillon and Cook show the best value to score according to our model. I like Cook given his history against Green Bay. Eight touchdowns in five games.
A running back has not scored against Green Bay in two straight weeks. Before that? Well, the Packers surrendered a score six out of eight weeks on the ground or through the air to a running back.
Play this out to -140 for 1 unit.
Pick: Dalvin Cook TD (1.5u)
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Receiving Yards vs. Texans
The Titans are without Derrick Henry, Jeremy McNichols and Julio Jones, so it is up to Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown.
Versus the Texans, this is a letdown spot, and a player like Brown should be on everyone’s radar. He has turned up the past few weeks, looking healthier as the season has gone on.
After 91 or more yards in three straight games, Brown was held to 42 yards in a blowout win over the Rams. He also faced Jalen Ramsey, so you kind of have to consider that.
Luckily for Brown, the Texans do not have a Ramsey. Here is how Brown has performed in his career versus Houston, per statmuse.
That totals 27 receptions, 39 targets, 447 yards and five touchdowns in four games. Those numbers come out to 6.75 receptions, 9.75 targets, 111.75 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game versus Houston.
Pretty solid stuff, huh?
Houston owns the fourth-highest yards per reception allowed to opponents (12.3) and seven plays of 40 or more yards (T-4th most). The Texans still have not solved issues in the secondary and, with quarterbacks averaging 8.3 yards per attempt against Houston (3rd-most).
Expect Ryan Tannehill to set Brown up for success deep and over the middle. He is the No. 1 option in this offense and could post another 100-yard outing.
I would play the Over on receiving yards to 74.5.
Pick: A.J. Brown Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (1.5u)
Joe Burrow O/U 267.5 Passing Yards vs. Raiders
We run it back against the Raiders’ secondary.
In the past four games versus Las Vegas, Daniel Jones recorded 110 passing yards, Jalen Hurts had 236, Teddy Bridgewater posted 334 and Patrick Mahomes 406.
Two of the last four quarterbacks hit this, and this should be a competitive game with the injuries to the Raiders secondary, so I like Burrow to hit 270-plus yards.
NBC’s model projects him for a 300-yard day as he has hit 271 or more in five out of the past six games.
In Burrow’s career, he started 11 road games and was favored twice. Those two contests came against the Lions and Jets, so I expect the Bengals to trail at points or be in a dogfight.
Las Vegas does not have much depth at defensive back. As of now, the healthy corners are Casey Heyward, Nate Hobbs and Desmond Trufant. For safeties, Johnathan Abram, Trevon Moehrig and Dallin Leavitt.
The rest are questionable for the game or limited in practice. Going against Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and more could be problematic. Las Vegas could allow these guys plenty of YAC with zone coverage.
These squads are jockeying for playoff position, both sitting at 5-4 on the year. I expect Big Game Joe to step up in Las Vegas. I would play this to 274.5 passing yards.
Pick: Joe Burrow Over 267.5 Passing Yards (1u)
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