What seemed impossible is now reality. At one time down three games to none, the Edmonton Oilers have staved off elimination not once but twice and so the Stanley Cup Final continues Friday night in Edmonton, Alberta. We have ourselves a series. It is Game 6 with the Florida Panthers now leading the Oilers three games to two. The Panthers (-330 to win the series) are still substantial favorites to lift the Stanley Cup, but the Oilers (+275) remain very much alive.
Few things about this series have been consistent and that is ultimately why the conversation regarding the Conn Smythe Trophy has been building. Sergei Bobrovsky began the series as the logical choice and favorite for the Conn Smythe but the last two outings for the Panthers and specifically Bobrovsky (+750) have derailed that narrative. Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner (+50000) was the far greater question mark, but his game has been at worst exceptional and timely the last couple of games. Matthew Tkachuk (+3000) now has 22 points in 22 playoff games this postseason. Could those 22 points in addition to his Game 5 last minute all-out dive to prevent an Oilers’ empty net goal symbolizing the drive and grit he brings to the Panthers have awakened voters as to his value to the Panthers? Aleksander Barkov (+300) is the most likely Panther to earn the Conn Smythe and a couple points Friday night would help, but the inability of the NHL’s Selke award winner to slow down Connor McDavid AT ALL makes Barkov’s case difficult to make.
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Now, we get to Connor McDavid (-200). The unquestioned best player in the NHL has put together highlight after highlight throughout the playoffs but especially in big moments. The former #1 pick overall is living in Wayne Gretzky territory. That is hallowed ground. McDavid has 42 points in 22 playoff games including four in both Game 4 and Game 5 when the Oilers were staring elimination in the face. Connor McDavid is now favored to win the Conn Smythe whether or not the Oilers lift the Stanley Cup. If the Panthers are able to overcome the Oilers’ momentum and win either Game 6 or 7 AND yet McDavid were to claim the Conn Smythe, Connor would be the first player since Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2003 and just sixth layer overall to lose in the Cup Final but win the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Fun Fact: Of the five players from losing teams to earn the Conn Smythe, Reggie Leach (19 goals in 16 playoff games) of the 1976 Philadelphia Flyers was the only skater. The other four were goaltenders – Roger Crozier in 1966, Glenn Hall in 1968, Ron Hextall in 1987, and J.S. Giguere in 2003. Remarkably, Leach and Hall each earned the Conn Smythe despite their respective teams being swept in the Cup Final.
Lets look specifically at Game 6 and find a few plays:
Game 6
Florida Panthers (-102) @ Edmonton Oilers (-118)
Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+210) | O/U: 5.5 (-110)
Let’s begin by saying if you believe the Panthers score first, the UNDER is in play. When Florida scores the first goal in a game, they then proceed to lock up their own end. They also push less on the offensive end. The result is fewer quality opportunities for both sides and that should translate to fewer goals. Conversely, if you like Edmonton to score first consider the OVER. Edmonton has been able to exploit the Panthers’ defense when they have a lead. There simply is more room for them to operate on offense…and they have difficulties keeping their opponents from getting solid looks.
Know as well if you are betting one team or the other, the empty net goal must be a consideration.
Matthew Tkachuk OVER 2.5 Shots (-166)
Tkachuk shows in big games and appears to be finding more space in the offensive end the last few games. He has cleared this number in three of the last four games of the Final.
Evan Rodrigues OVER 1.5 Shots (-166)
Quietly, Rodrigues has emerged as one of the top performers in this series for Florida. He has cleared this number in each of the last four games.
Connor McDavid OVER 1.5 Points (-140)
This is an historic run, and it is fun to ride it out. McDavid has cleared this number each of the last three games with four points in both Game 4 and Game 5. Great players perform when the lights are the brightest and Connor McDavid is without question. Was considering his shot total but he has not cleared the posted number (3.5) in three of the five games of this Series. That said, he is capable of clearing the number in a couple shifts, so we stayed away from McDavid Total Shots.
Total Goals in the 2nd Period OVER 1.5 Goals (-154)
Desperation is a big part of the Game 6 storyline, and the desperation will grow as the game clock ticks. That will lead to scoring chances. The teams have combined to clear this number each of the last three games.
Enjoy Game 6 and a couple of sweats along the way. If there is a Game 7, we’ll be back with a few more plays.
