As improbable as it seemed just one week ago, tonight is Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers. How did we get here? Connor McDavid has gotten better with each game and brought his teammates with him while Florida’s trio of Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe have each lit the lamp just once in the series. We can dive deeper and speak to the speed of the Oilers or Sergei Bobrovsky’s sudden lack of dominance but ultimately Edmonton’s top skaters have dominated while Florida’s have struggled for the past week. Stuart Skinner saw a mere three pucks reach him from those three Panthers and that simply is not good enough. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid did not secure a single point in Game 6. In fact, he did not even get credit for a shot on goal and yet the Oilers evened the series.
How will all of that affect Game 7? Certainly, momentum belongs to the Oilers, but a return to dominance by Bobrovsky or an early goal by one of the aforementioned Panthers changes everything.
Game 7
Edmonton Oilers (-108) vs. Florida Panthers (-112)
Puck Line: Panthers -1.5 goals (+235) | O/U: 5.5
Lets first look at the most popular bets.
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Most bet (tickets) player props at BetMGM
1. Connor McDavid to score 1st goal (+130)
2. Connor McDavid to score anytime goal (+900)
3. Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-125)
4. Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-105)
5. Sergei Bobrovsky over 24.5 saves (-115)
I don’t like the McDavid to score 1st but those all fit the narrative of the Conn Smythe winner authoring the final chapter of the greatest comeback in Stanley Cup history since 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs came back from down 3-0 in the Final against the Detroit Red Wings. Americans love stars and Connor McDavid has been the brightest star throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Game Total UNDER 5.5 Goals (-148)
There have been 14 Game 7s since 1950. Each has stayed under 5.5 total goals.
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Matthew Tkachuk OVER 3.5 Shots (+130)
The pulse of this Panthers’ team has been MIA the last couple of games. He sets the tone for this team. I expect him to be involved early in Game 7. This line was set at 2.5 until early this afternoon which means smart money is expecting Tkachuk to show up tonight.
Sergei Bobrovsky OVER 24.5 Saves (-115)
Gotta believe Florida comes out with some fire tonight, but this has cashed in only two of the first six games of the Final. Thus, we are not making this bet based on recent history. We are basing it on the past two season of resilience in Sunrise. Florida may not win but gotta believe they put 8-12 shots on Skinner in the opening 20 minutes and build from there.
Pizza Money Bet: Overtime – Yes (+270)
To conclude an historic series that has done anything but follow a script, why not?!
Either Florida wins their first Stanley Cup or Edmonton wins their first since 1990 which is longer than the Panthers have been in existence.
Enjoy Game 7 and let’s cash a few tickets.
