Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting on both Game 6’s between the Knicks and 76ers, plus the Cavaliers at the Magic.
Knicks at 76ers (-3.5): O/U 200.5
If you look throughout the series, you will see plenty of quarters that combined for 45, 43, 44, and 36 points for example between these two teams. This series has been a grind for two teams that match up well physically and play at similar tempos.
Donte DiVincenzo scored 22 total points in the last three games on 8-of-28 (28.5%), while Josh Hart (17.0 PPG) and OG Anunoby (14.2 PPG) have stepped up as the secondary scorers alongside Jalen Brunson (34.4 PPG). Other than those three, there isn’t much scoring going on inside that six-to-seven-man rotation.
For Philly, Kyle Lowry posted a dud of zero points in Game 5, while Kelly Oubre and Tobias Harris combined for their best offensive outing (33 points, 12 rebounds, 13/19 FG).
Joel Embiid is dealing with a migraine and more health issues (7/19 from the field in Game 5), so only getting to the free-throw line six times was concerning for his game. It was clear Embiid is not 100 percent and the offensive weight is on Tyrese Maxey’s shoulders (46 points in Game 5).
I played the Under 202.5 (-110) at the opening line and would go down to 200.5 for 2 units. I expect both teams to struggle to reach 100 points and the fourth quarter to be extremely low-scoring similar to Game 4.
Pick: Under 201.5 (3u)
Cavaliers at Magic (-3.5): O/U 201.5
Cleveland scored 83 and 89 points in the two trips to Orlando, shooting 12-of-51 from three (23.5%) and turning the ball over 29 times, so despite this being a closeout game, I cannot trust the Cavaliers.
Cleveland is the more talented and seasoned team, there is no doubt about that, but those Game 3 and 4 efforts cannot be erased from my mind, while Orlando was impressive and scrappy in Game 5’s 104-103 loss.
Orlando hasn’t had the opportunity to force a Game 7 in quite some time, so this is an unfamiliar situation for a young and desperate squad coming off a one-point road loss (14 turnovers and 29% from three).
I don’t trust the guard play for Orlando as Gary Harris (0 points, injured), Markelle Fultz (7 points), and Jalen Suggs (13 points) combined for 8-of-20 from the field (40%) and 0-for-7 from three in Game 5. That trio will have to step their games up at home alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
I played the Under 203.5 (-110) at the opening line and would go down to 200.5 for 1 unit. I expect defense to be at the forefront of this game and both offenses to experience scoring droughts.
Pick: Under 203.5 (2u)
Season Record: 49-43 (53.2%) +4.45 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Knicks to win series vs 76ers (-118)
1u: Knicks to win Game 1 vs 76ers and series (+170)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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