Vaughn Dalzell lays out who he is betting on to win the NBA Finals and NBA Finals MVP between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks.
NBA Finals: Mavericks (+175) vs Celtics (-210)
The Boston Celtics fit into a lot of trends that point towards the franchise earning its 18th title, ranging from net rating to record to defense. Boston owns the 4th-highest net rating of all time and when going over the top 10, all but one of those teams won an NBA championship pending the Celtics outcome (2016 Warriors).
Teams with 20 combined losses or fewer in the entire regular and postseason also have success in the NBA Finals, winning seven out of eight chances (2016 Warriors). Lastly, the Celtics have the best-rated defense and only three teams have won an NBA Championship without owning a top-10 defense (Dallas ranks 18th).
Dallas has the odds stacked against them, but the duo of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic can beat almost any opponent on any given night. However, I believe Joe Mazzula and Boston will attack Doncic when he’s on defense and find ways to negate Derrick Lively Jr. and Daniel Gafford as lob threats.
Kristaps Porzingis will be available for this series, so both teams are healthy ahead of the NBA Finals. While Porzingis coming back couldn’t have come at a better time, I would have still taken Boston to win the NBA Finals without him.
The Celtics have been the best team in the NBA all season and I think they prove that in six games. I predict Boston wins the series 4-2 (+475). I played Boston to win the Finals at -210 odds and sprinkled the series spread of -1.5 at +100.
Pick: Celtics to win the NBA Finals (Risk 2.5u), Celtics to win series 4-2 (Risk 0.5u)
Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (-115)
If you are betting a Celtic to win Finals MVP, look no further than Jaylen Brown (+650) or Jayson Tatum (-115), and to Luka Doncic (+250) and Kyrie Irving (+2200) for Dallas.
Brown and Doncic won Eastern and Western Conference MVP honors, which was not surprising, but some feel Tatum was snubbed after putting up better per-game series averages than Brown.
However, Brown played some of the best basketball of his career in the series versus Indiana averaging 29.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. Tatum posted 30.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists against the Pacers, but shot a little worse than Brown, primarily in the second half.
If one or two players fill up the stat sheet in the Finals, it’s going to be Tatum or Doncic. Tatum double-doubled in 11 out of 14 playoff games thus far and Doncic 13 of 17 (six triple-doubles).
I grabbed Tatum at -115 odds on DraftKings to win NBA Finals MVP. I would go out to -150 on Tatum. My second choice would be Brown at +650 down to +400.
Pick: Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (Risk 1.5u)
Season Record: 74-59 (55.6%) +13.12 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
Risk 2.5u: Celtics to win the NBA Finals (-210)
Risk 1.5u: Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (-115)
Risk 0.5u: Celtics to win the series 4-2 (+475)
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