Coming off Game 4’s blowout win, Vaughn Dalzell targets how to bet on Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks.
Luka Doncic O/U 9.5 1Q Points vs. Celtics
Luka Doncic led all scores in Game 4 with 29 points and is the favorite to do it again in Game 5. Whether or not he does, Doncic has been aggressive in the opening 12 minutes averaging 11.5 points per first quarter during the NBA Finals.
The Mavericks superstar averages 7.8 field goal attempts, 3.3 triples, and 2.8 free throws in the first quarter against the Celtics. In Boston during Games 1 and 2, Doncic averaged 10.0 points, 7.0 field goal attempts, 3.0 triples, and 2.0 free throw attempts, so his numbers were still on pace for the series and this prop.
Doncic and the Mavericks had some slightly different offensive schemes in Game 4, which led to 122 points and while we cannot expect that same type of offensive performance, we can expect Doncic to be at the forefront of whatever Dallas does early and often.
I played Doncic Over 9.5 1Q Points at -120 odds on DraftKings and would go to -150 odds. I’d pass on the Over 10.5. Kyrie Irving wasn’t the best in Boston (14.0 PPG on 13/37 (35.1%), so if he misses his first shot or two, expect Doncic to take over.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 9.5 1Q Points (1u)
Sam Hauser O/U 8.5 PRA vs. Mavericks
Sam Hauser saw extended minutes because of the Game 4 blowout loss to Dallas, which is when he grabbed a majority of his rebounds and scored a few buckets.
Hauser is coming off 14 points and four rebounds over 20 minutes of action on 5-of-7 from the field. The Celtics role player scored a combined 11 points with three rebounds and one assist in Games 2 and 3.
Hauser is mainly a shooter as in the four games so far, Hauser has two assists and two games with zero assists. I expect Hauser’s production to come back down to Earth.
Dallas also switched Hauser on Luka Doncic quite a bit in Game 4, which could take Hauser out of the rotation given the circumstances. I doubt we see a blowout, which means Hauser should be back to his 10-15 minutes for Game 5.
I grabbed Hauser Under 8.5 PRA at -122 odds on DraftKings and would play Under 7.5 at +100 or pivot to Under 2.5 rebounds. Hauser would likely need multiple triples to hit this Over or three-plus rebounds, which I doubt happens.
Pick: Sam Hauser Under 8.5 PRA (1u)
Season Record: 80-67 (54.4%) +11.23 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
Risk 2.5u: Celtics to win the NBA Finals (-210)
Risk 1.5u: Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (-115)
Risk 0.5u: Celtics to win the series 4-2 (+475)
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