Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he is betting on Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks.
Jaylen Brown 30+ Points (+280) vs Mavericks
Jaylen Brown is a heavy -280 to -350 favorite to win NBA Finals MVP entering Game 4 in Dallas with a 3-0 lead after 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists over 41 minutes.
Brown has not only been one of the most impactful players offensively in this series but defensively as well with six steals and four blocks in three games, which is a big reason why he is the current favorite for Finals MVP.
To cap off the series, I think Brown to score not only 25 points but 30-plus points is mispriced between +230 and +280 considering his volume. Brown posted a combined 37 field goal attempts (14 triples) and 9 free throws in the past two games with 41 and 42 minutes played.
Brown’s been an efficient 55.1% from the field in the series (24.3 PPG) and should be just as aggressive to close this out. I played Brown to score 25-plus (-108) and 30-plus points at +280 odds and would go down to +200. As a Jayson Tatum Finals MVP ticket holder, this sucks, but Brown has been consistent on both ends and should win.
One of the probable outcomes to stop Brown from cashing would be a blowout, but he would likely exit late in the fourth.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (1u), Jaylen Brown 30+ Points (0.25u)
Season Record: 78-64 (54.9%) +11.02 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
Risk 2.5u: Celtics to win the NBA Finals (-210)
Risk 1.5u: Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (-115)
Risk 0.5u: Celtics to win the series 4-2 (+475)
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