Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the best bets for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks hosting the Boston Celtics.
Celtics at Mavericks (-2.5): O/U 214.5
Boston won Games 1 and 2 at home by 18 and 7 points due to the lack of secondary scoring behind Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Multiple Mavericks spoke on the need for someone to step up alongside the two and I think at home, Dallas will get some type of assistance from the bench and role players.
Guys like P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively are the obvious options to step up for Dallas, but I’d add another name as a sleeper. Jason Kidd needs to add Tim Hardaway Jr. to the rotation over Maxi Kleber.
Hardaway played zero minutes in Game 2 following eight minutes in Game 1 and if he gets any action in Game 3, I think he could make an impact or be worth some live bets.
Dallas has shot 13-of-53 from three (24.5%) and 28-of-43 from the free-throw line (65.1%) in the first two games. Those are two areas that will improve at home as to where Boston’s numbers should decline, as they have on the road compared to playing at home in the postseason.
This is an all-out desperation spot for Dallas as they are down 0-2 at home for Game 3. I expected the Mavericks to win Game 2 or 3, so I will rock with the Dallas ML at -137 odds and would go out to -150.
Pick: Mavericks ML (Risk 1.5u)
Kyrie Irving 25+ Points (+110) vs. Celtics
Luka Doncic 35+ Points (+130) vs Celtics
Kyrie Irving has been quiet in most of the postseason, including this series. Irving has yet to make a three-pointer (0/8) and is 2-for-2 from the free-throw line in Games 1 and 2, yet I like this spot for him.
In Boston, Irving was most hated and the recipient of the constant booing and hazing from the crowd, but in Dallas, he will be cheered continuously. Irving put up 37 field goal attempts in two games (13/37 for 35.1%), so the volume is there for 25 or more points in Game 3.
I expect to see a locked-in and more confident Kyrie in Game 3 at home and his counterpart, Luka Doncic, should be in for another big game.
Doncic has scored 30 and 32 points in Games 1 and 2 but had quiet second halves in 38 and 42 minutes played. As the series goes on, Doncic should be playing at least 40 minutes and 42 is likely a low-point at home in Game 3. Doncic has 13 free-throw attempts and 21 three-point attempts in two games, so he will have plenty of volume in Game 3.
I grabbed the Mavericks duo of Kyrie and Luka to each get buckets. I played Kyrie at 25-plus points for +110 odds and Luka at 35-plus for +130 odds.
Picks: Kyrie Irving 25+ Points (1u), Luka Doncic 35+ Points (1u)
Season Record: 77-62 (55.3%) +12.42 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
Risk 2.5u: Celtics to win the NBA Finals (-210)
Risk 1.5u: Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (-115)
Risk 0.5u: Celtics to win the series 4-2 (+475)
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