aVaughn Dalzell breaks down his Game 1 plays for the NBA Finals, including player props on Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis and a second-quarter total of 55.5.
Mavericks at Celtics (-6.5): O/U 217.0
2Q O/U 55.5 Points
I have Boston to win the series in six, plus more plays for the series, which you can read here, but for my favorite play of Game 1, I am going Over 55.5 points in the second quarter at -125 odds.
Both Boston and Dallas shoot nearly 50% from the field in the second quarter this postseason (49.0%, 48.3%) and 35% or better from deep (38.3%, 35%). Both squads are in the upper half of the league in plus-minus for the second quarter and have played more games than anyone else, which makes it more impressive.
With the first quarter being the ultimate feel-out process, I like the second quarter to go Over 55.5 points at -125 odds on FanDuel and would go up to 56.5.
Pick: 2Q Over 55.5 (Risk 1.5u)
Kristaps Porzingis O/U 22.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Mavericks
Kristaps Porzingis returns after missing the second and third rounds of the postseason. Joe Mazzulla says Porzingis is not on a minutes restriction likely, but may not start for Game 1.
That was an interesting comment for someone who is supposed to be pain-free. There is some rust to knock off regardless and I expect Porzingis to be a candidate for the Under in Game 1 until he gains a rhythm and feel for his former team, the Dallas Mavericks.
Porzingis’ points and rebounds prop of 22.5 seems a little high for a player likely getting 22-30 minutes of action tonight and maybe coming off the bench. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II will be tough matchups that will force Porzingis into tough shots unlike what Miami was throwing at him.
I played the Under 22.5 Points and Rebounds for Porzingis at -120 odds and would opt for the PRA at 23.5 or 24.5 as pivots. There is another player that I think can get more rebounds than Porzingis for Boston.
Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Under 22.5 P+R (1u)
Jayson Tatum O/U 9.5 Rebounds vs. Mavericks
Jayson Tatum is my pick for Finals MVP (-115) and I think has a strong showing in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at home.
Tatum has been a beast on the boards this postseason, grabbing 10 or more rebounds in 11 out of 14 games. He averaged 10.3 or 10.4 rebounds in each of his three playoff series this year. The Celtics’ star averages 14.8 rebound chances per game and converts 10.4 of them, which is a great percentage (70%).
In previous NBA Finals games, Tatum has only converted 10 or more rebounds in two out of six, but I do like this matchup, plus the importance he has on the boards. Even with Porzingis back, Tatum will be the No. 1 rebounder for Boston as Al Horford and Jaylen Brown are the next best candidates to reach six boards.
I played Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds at -118 odds and would go up to 10.5 for a 0.5 unit or his Over on points + rebounds.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (1u)
Season Record: 74-59 (55.6%) +13.12 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
Risk 2.5u: Celtics to win the NBA Finals (-210)
Risk 1.5u: Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP (-115)
Risk 0.5u: Celtics to win the series 4-2 (+475)
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