Vaughn Dalzell is coming off a 5-0 day and has a few NBA plays on his card for Wednesday, including Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Davis, plus props on the Thunder and Hawks.
Jayson Tatum to Double-Double (+100) at Pacers
I lost on Jayson Tatum to double-double against the Bucks, falling short with 15 points and 8 rebounds. However, this is another good matchup with tempo for Tatum to stat-pad.
Tatum averages 11.5 rebound chances per game on the season, but had 14 in the past game and 13.7 over the past three games. Indiana allows the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (13.5) and ranks 19th overall in opponent rebounding per game (45.3). Lately, Indiana has allowed big games to players on the boards.
For example, Cody Martin (17 PTS, 12 REB), Andre Drummond (9 PTS, 17 REB), Karl-Anthony Towns (21 PTS, 15 REB), Josh Hart (20 PTS, 10 REB), Jalen Duren (13 PTS, 13 REB), Cade Cunningham (28 PTS, 8 REB), Wendell Carter Jr. (11 PTS, 10 REB) and Paolo Banchero (50 PTS, 13 REB) all to have strong games and double-double or come near it.
I think Tatum has a strong bounce-back game and double-doubles for the second time this season. I got this at +100 and would go to -130.
Pick: Jayson Tatum to double-double (1u)
Thunder 1H Team Total O/U 57.5 Points vs Spurs
Last season, Oklahoma City won three meetings against San Antonio by 26, 38, and 36 points, but lost one by 14 and trailed at the half.
We will know by halftime how competitive this game is, but either way, the Thunder are going to score plenty of points. OKC scored 123, 140, 132, and 127 points in four meetings with the Spurs last season and I think OKC could go for 120-plus points again.
However, I like the first half Team Total Over 57.5 for OKC. The Thunder scored 102, 114, and 128 points to start the season with 58, 59, and 57 points in the first half of those games. San Antonio permitted 47, 41, and then 62 points in the first half of their games this year and 120, 106, and 106 overall points.
Teams are starting to warm up and that includes the Thunder. Give me OKC 1H Team Total Over 57.5 (-115) up to 58.5.
Pick: Thunder 1H Team Total Over 57.5 (1u)
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Anthony Davis O/U 43.5 PRA at Cavaliers
Anthony Davis has been on fire this season totaling 42 or more PRA in all four games and becoming one of my favorite players to bet on this season.
However, there is always a sell-high spot on a player and I will ride with fading AD here. Cleveland has the twin towers down low in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, which is a tough matchup, not to mention this is the fourth game in six days for both teams.
When in Cleveland, you can always expect LeBron James to up his usage a bit (24.4%), so I do think Davis’ 29.9% usage rate (22nd) will take a small dip this game which will be enough. I played Davis Under 43.5 PRA (-115) and would go down to 42.5.
Pick: Anthony Davis Under 43.5 PRA (1.5u)
Hawks 1Q Team Total O/U 29.5 at Wizards
The Wizards beat the Hawks in Atlanta on Monday, so the Hawks will want to repay the Wizards with its home loss in DC.
Atlanta has been a strong first-quarter team this season. Atlanta led at the end of the first quarter against all four opponents this season: Brooklyn (30-24), Charlotte (28-16), Thunder (27-3), and the Wizards (28-25).
The Hawks are only -1 in the first quarter, which could be a trap since the two teams just played. However, Atlanta has that motivation as I stated and Kyle Kuzma is out for Washington, which benefits the Hawks. The Wizards youngsters will have more freedom and likely chuck shots, keeping the tempo similar to, if not quicker than Monday’s meeting.
Washington’s given up 28, 28, and 33 first-quarter points this season. I played the Hawks 1Q Team Total Over 29.5 at -115 odds. I would take the Hawks 1Q -1 as a pivot play.
Pick: Hawks 1Q Team Total Over 29.5 (1u)
Season Record: 20-8 (71.4%) +13.83u
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